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State of the Industry

Started by Tmac47, May 12, 2014, 03:38:21 PM

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Tmac47

I've been sitting on these questions for a while, because I know it tends to stir up controversy.  However, in the next few years I see a big shift in land ownership, as land is left to the next generation, which will accompany an even bigger shift in where landowners go to get their information.

Historically, landowners have always gone to their local forester/logger/operation or to the Yellow Pages to find help and advice.  That trend is going to shift dramatically to favor the internet and is already moving in that direction.

So, for my questions:

1. What areas of the industry do you think could be improved upon with technology and the internet?

2. What are your fears in regard to the changes that you foresee?

3. What do you hope remains the same?

GlennCz

Quote from: Tmac47 on May 12, 2014, 03:38:21 PM
Historically, landowners have always gone to their local forester/logger/operation or to the Yellow Pages to find help and advice.  That trend is going to shift dramatically to favor the internet and is already moving in that direction.
The internet has been around for a long time.  I don't see much change in regards to timber than I saw 9 years ago when I timbered my property.  I doubt facebook or twitter are having much influence.  Only difference is that it is easier to talk to and text the people you are dealing with. 

I wouldn't doubt that computers have made the milling process more efficient.

There is always a concern about some kind of crazy carbon tax being put on logs or regulations necessitating study of wildlife impacts.  Anything can happen in that regard.  I am sure they are working on it.  Computers have a way of making simple things hard, complicated and time-consuming.  I see that every day in my own business which has nothing to do with logging. 

Ron Wenrich


I don't really see a big change in ownership.  As the boomers retire, some will take to the wooded lots for their second home or possibly their primary home.  When it comes time to pass it on to the next generation, they'll manage it the same way that their parents did.  If Dad used a forester, so will the kids.  If he went to the mill up the road, so will they.  If Dad didn't trust loggers, neither will they.

If it doesn't go to the next generation, the resource will be cut off, and the land sold.  That's the way its always happened.  The only exception is if the land goes from private personal land to private corporate land.  Real estate trusts and the like may actively purchase land in an area and manage it.  But, that would tend to be in areas with good timber and low land values. 

The internet has made information easier to obtain.  You have folks who manage a woodlot on their own.  They do it without a preliminary cruise that would give them a better road map of the condition of their forest before putting a saw to it.  So do many foresters and loggers.  Just because there is information there doesn't mean they will follow it or believe it.  Foresters have been harping about management planning for decades, and still very few people work with one. 

In theory, technology should make harvesting and utilization more efficient.  That should keep prices in check.  Look at how engineered wood is bringing down the amount of wood used in a house.  I also think that houses will shrink in size with increased efficiency.  But, there will also be higher pressure for export to places like China with higher buying power.

If prices go too high, then alternative products come into play.  Vinyl siding has taken over both aluminum and wood siding.  There was a push for steel studs, and I've seen them in some commercial projects.  You have Pergo floors and other synthetics.  It could be that the only  markets available for wood will be in industrial woods.  What can be veneered will be used in high end furniture and the like or used in engineered wood. 

What I would hope would remain the same is enough demand remains for the niche of quality products in solid wood.  I would also hope that the respect for the forest would remain.  There are more products in the woodlot than fiber.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

SwampDonkey

What I have seen up here is improved market access for everyone, and woodlot owners organized. But at the same time I have seen woodlots mostly being liquidated in the last 30 years. Before that, when I was younger, a woodlot was rarely clearcut and most of the wood cutting on a woodlot was by the family. What started the wheels on the clearcutting woodlots was actually the woodlot organizations through the implementation of quota holders with a volume ticketing system. It meant the woodlot owner that wants to cut 5 or 6 loads of wood a year was kicked to the side and a lot gave up because they could not get volume (tickets). They could have wood cut by a quota holder because they had a volume contract/allocation with boards. One example was that dad had to move wood he cut through a local mill contract because the board set quotas with a select few producers. That happened a lot all over. Later that foolishness changed, but by then a lot gave up and just hired the logger and thus clearcutting became common. By then many had other jobs and left the woodlot as a supplemental to income other than on the farm. Wood prices were better, but the owner took less percentage because the loggers now did most the cutting and equipment got too expensive for the little operator.

My uncle's first experience with the quota system caused him to give up because his wood laid and spoiled, couldn't sell, no tickets. That last bunch of wood he burned in the furnace. That was the last time he tried to sell. He was the 2 or 3 load a year type of guy and worked with a horse.

That's the changes I have seen. I have not seen much influence from the internet at all. Way too much hype placed there. Like Ron said, the next generation follows in the footsteps of mom and dad using logger, forester, educating themselves or being a weekend enthusiast. How many threads have been started here (a good many) where the owner is diving right in themselves and until it's mentioned here to get professional management advise, are already talking with loggers. And I agree with Ron on plans, I have done a lot a few years back and most of those lots are now all cut. They just look at volume and money for the most part, and usually a logger gets a free cruise. Even though there is tax advantage to following a plan, most people do not rely on the woodlot as an income stream annually. For those folks there is no tax break, you need to conduct woodlot management like a business for tax incentives. These are mostly loggers and some farmers. But most farms are liquidated to pay the bills, and not governed by management plans. ;)

Same ol' same ol' I'm afraid.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

terry f

    By industry, do you mean being a forester or timber industry as a whole? I see more owners, but smaller pieces. People can't afford 250 acres at two to three thousand per acre, and the 80 year old who passes, will probably have his 160 acres split up between his 50 to 60 year old kids, so I don't see the age of ownership changing much. Here it seems foresters work for the state or big timber companies, don't really see private foresters, or know anyone who uses them on a small piece. Lots of info available on the net or from the state forester, so hopefully the small pieces will be better taken care of than in the past. Its tough if you need income from your woodlot, rather than seeing it as a bonus, that's probably when bad decisions are made.

Tmac47

Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 13, 2014, 06:23:15 AMI have not seen much influence from the internet at all.  Way too much hype placed there.

You haven't seen much influence from the internet personally or you haven't seen it period?  I've gotten over 300 emails in the past two years from landowners looking for help with their timber and have generated over $2m in timber sales.  I've spent zero dollars on marketing and generate all of my conversions organically.  I average about 2,2000 page views per month.  The typical email I get looks like, "I've got 70 acres of timber and I want to get it logged.  Can you help me with that?"


Quote from: SwampDonkeyLike Ron said, the next generation follows in the footsteps of mom and dad using logger, forester, educating themselves or being a weekend enthusiast. How many threads have been started here (a good many) where the owner is diving right in themselves and until it's mentioned here to get professional management advise, are already talking with loggers.

You contradict yourself here.  On one hand you say that people are doing it like they've always done and on the other you're saying that a good many threads have been started here by folks looking for help.  Landowners haven't always gone to the internet for help, so the fact that they're coming here says something.

I'm sure if they broke down the keywords and statistics they'd find a ton of valuable data (aka. data people would be willing to pay for) and certainly something to monetize.

Up until this point, it's simply been a matter of no one capitalizing on the traffic that's out there.

Quote from: SwampDonkeySame ol' same ol' I'm afraid.

But what if it's not?  What if you could capitalize on $20,000+ more per year from timber sales and management in your area that are going to Google for help.

Land sales have done it, parallel markets have done it (financial planners & realtors), yet the timber industry seems resistant and almost in denial about the market that exists on the internet.

What if there was an app that landowners could use on their property that gave them the basal area of their tract?  What if you could connect directly with a landowner that had such information, so before you ever talked to them, you had a good idea of what was going on?

Tmac47

Quote from: terry f on May 13, 2014, 03:46:16 PM
    By industry, do you mean being a forester or timber industry as a whole?

Both :)

Quote from: terry fI see more owners, but smaller pieces. People can't afford 250 acres at two to three thousand per acre, and the 80 year old who passes, will probably have his 160 acres split up between his 50 to 60 year old kids, so I don't see the age of ownership changing much.

I'm not saying the age of ownership is changing.  I'm saying that a generation of landowners who do not use the internet are leaving their land to a generation of landowners that go to Google to get their mortgage, insurance, Christmas presents and even groceries.  The fact that there are more landowners out there only means that it's harder to connect with them in the historic fashion.

I guarantee that the kids of landowners who handled the sale of timber themselves generally have no idea how their dad did it.  They're generally having to go at it alone.

Quote from: terry fHere it seems foresters work for the state or big timber companies, don't really see private foresters, or know anyone who uses them on a small piece. Lots of info available on the net or from the state forester, so hopefully the small pieces will be better taken care of than in the past. Its tough if you need income from your woodlot, rather than seeing it as a bonus, that's probably when bad decisions are made.

The reason you don't see foresters on small pieces is because of low-information landowners.  The perfect example is the guy who posted the day before me about his 10 acre tract that got an $8,000 bid for the timber.  The guys here suggested he find a forester and ended up realizing he could make more like $35,000 and even after realizing it didn't think it was worth paying the forester 8% commission.  That's what I call a lack of education.  No one knows the value of a forester because no one is telling them.

The National Realtor Association spends about $8m every year telling homeowners why Realtors are valuable.

Merrill Lynch spends about $2b every year telling individuals why they need a financial advisor.

The timber industry spends...ZERO DOLLARS telling people why they should use a forester.

The results speak for themselves.

beenthere

Tmac
Did you start this thread so you could tell everyone how it really is?

Or were you looking for some discussion and ideas from others?

Your last post has me wondering.



QuoteThe timber industry spends...ZERO DOLLARS telling people why they should use a forester.

Seems I've heard that statement before, and maybe it was you. ;)
south central Wisconsin
It may be that my sole purpose in life is simply to serve as a warning to others

terry f

   There are only so many dollars in any situation, if I spend one thousand for a forester, and he makes me an extra ten thousand, who's pocket did that come out of. Someone is making $10,000 less.

SwampDonkey

It's not a contradiction, because it doesn't change what gets done on the ground. What I see of the internet is no different than the phone. They are coming to the forum, instead of the phone. And many already have their logger and no plan, same as it's been for some time. Just looking on here to see how much more their timber should be worth when none of us have seen it. What gets done on the woodlot isn't changing, not around here. Just drive around. I and many others have had websites up here, marketing boards to. Marketing boards get most of their hits for there price and mill spec bulletins. They can otherwise walk in the door and actually get a lot more information with a conversation. Marketing boards replace consultants and DNR, they are the go to place in NB for woodlot owners. Have been for 30 + years. A lot of work up here, outside of clearcutting, is generated through boards via silviculture work which is subsidized.  The internet has not changed the work or who does it. All internet does is start an anonymous conversation. Go to a marketing board office and strike up a conversation, it will be just as rewarding as a forum and you'll get more pertinent answers because the responses are based on local experiences. Each of the NB FPM Boards historically sell $8-15M of primary forest products a year and this with no internet. Now sales are a lot less, wood sales period are down, price is to. And they are not going elsewhere to move wood. With no boards it will be a lot less for woodlot owners. The Irvings would love that.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

SwampDonkey

Quote from: terry f on May 14, 2014, 04:20:10 AM
   There are only so many dollars in any situation, if I spend one thousand for a forester, and he makes me an extra ten thousand, who's pocket did that come out of. Someone is making $10,000 less.

If I'm the woodlot owner, I'm some glad it's my $10,000. ;D

I have seen that happen between loggers. A 10 acre patch one logger offered the neighbor $3000, the next guy offered and got the job for $10000. I know the logger and he told me he cut over 300 cords of wood off that patch. No internet involved. ;)

Quote from: Tmac47 on May 13, 2014, 11:25:03 PM

I guarantee that the kids of landowners who handled the sale of timber themselves generally have no idea how their dad did it.  They're generally having to go at it alone.

I don't agree, I have talked one on one with a lot of woodlot owners and when selling wood comes up, dad or uncle so and so gets mentioned in how they did it. I'm sure there are some exceptions, because not all parents share information. When my dad grew up and was practically running the farm when grandfather was sick, my grandparents still went in another room with the door closed to talk about the financials. That didn't happen between my parents and my brother and I. We heard it all, mostly because of mom. ;) :D
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Tmac47

Quote from: beenthere on May 14, 2014, 12:06:59 AM
Tmac
Did you start this thread so you could tell everyone how it really is?

Or were you looking for some discussion and ideas from others?

Your last post has me wondering.

Not at all. Apparently my talking points are pretty consistent ;)

I can only talk from my experience, which is very limited, so my passion might be communicating more than I intend.

I'm also not a forester or broker, so my view of the industry (landowners and timber companies) is more of an outside in perspective.  I tend to see things differently than a lot of people, even my dad who's been a registered forester for 30 years.

Tmac47

Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 14, 2014, 04:26:32 AM
It's not a contradiction, because it doesn't change what gets done on the ground. What I see of the internet is no different than the phone. They are coming to the forum, instead of the phone. And many already have their logger and no plan, same as it's been for some time. Just looking on here to see how much more their timber should be worth when none of us have seen it.

I see what you mean. But, in most cases if a landowner goes and gets a forester, would you say the work on the ground changes?

I'm not trying to split hairs, just making a point that effective education/marketing or whatever does effect some sort of change.

Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 14, 2014, 04:26:32 AMWhat gets done on the woodlot isn't changing, not around here. Just drive around. I and many others have had websites up here, marketing boards to. Marketing boards get most of their hits for there price and mill spec bulletins. They can otherwise walk in the door and actually get a lot more information with a conversation. Marketing boards replace consultants and DNR, they are the go to place in NB for woodlot owners. Have been for 30 + years. A lot of work up here, outside of clearcutting, is generated through boards via silviculture work which is subsidized.  The internet has not changed the work or who does it. All internet does is start an anonymous conversation. Go to a marketing board office and strike up a conversation, it will be just as rewarding as a forum and you'll get more pertinent answers because the responses are based on local experiences. Each of the NB FPM Boards historically sell $8-15M of primary forest products a year and this with no internet. Now sales are a lot less, wood sales period are down, price is to. And they are not going elsewhere to move wood. With no boards it will be a lot less for woodlot owners. The Irvings would love that.

What's an FPM Board?

You said that the conversation as far as the process on the wood lot goes.

However, I'm curious if you have seen any sort of negative effects from things like the green movement and going paperless?

Obviously there are immediate effects to the market and on the corporate level, but has the conversation with younger landowners been effected at all?

Tmac47

Quote from: SwampDonkey on May 14, 2014, 04:37:04 AM

I don't agree, I have talked one on one with a lot of woodlot owners and when selling wood comes up, dad or uncle so and so gets mentioned in how they did it. I'm sure there are some exceptions, because not all parents share information. When my dad grew up and was practically running the farm when grandfather was sick, my grandparents still went in another room with the door closed to talk about the financials. That didn't happen between my parents and my brother and I. We heard it all, mostly because of mom. ;) :D

I probably shouldn't have spoken in such absolutes.

I'm not a forester or a timber buyer and never deal directly with landowners. My focus is more on connecting with landowners who are seeking help or knowledge.

So, when I talk to landowners they're obviously in a different situation. They're not going directly to a forester or logger like maybe their parents did.

In these cases, I've found that they want to do something because their dad did or they need the money. They don't necessarily know what it is their dad did though.

That was more my point.

How do you generally get connected with 30 - 50 year old landowners?

Ron Wenrich

Although you may not be a forester or a timber buyer, by looking at your website, you do deal with landowners.  Your website also professes to be "a network of timber companies with the goal of educating landowners and opening up the industry".  You are offering advice and you offer to connect landowners with " reputable timber companies who give them preferential treatment".  You also use a bidding process, according to your site.  Let's just say that you're not a disinterested party in the outcome of a timber sale or the management of private lands.  I don't know if your timber companies are consulting foresters, loggers, sawmills or a combination of the lot. 

That being said, the internet is used by a variety of vendors in the timber industry.  I can find sites from foresters, loggers, sawmills, and state forestry departments that offer all sorts of information. They all use it as a marketing tool, as do you.  I'm sure many of them also have success with the internet.

But, the vast majority of timber doesn't go through the internet.  It still gets bought and sold by dirt foresters and loggers combing plat maps and driving around looking for timber.  If they are depending on the internet to bring in vast amounts of sales, they will likely starve.  Your results may vary, as you're in a different area than the rest of us. 

Northern forestry and landownership is not the same as southern forestry.  In our state, 11% of the landowners own forest land for the production of sawtimber. Quite a few also have the land for firewood production.  There could be management possibilities there.  There The largest landowner segment was to cultivate/collect nontimber forest products, 32%.  There may be a market there if you can determine what those products are and compatibility.  I don't know how they are in your area.


Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

SwampDonkey

Quote from: Tmac47 on May 14, 2014, 09:16:24 AM
But, in most cases if a landowner goes and gets a forester, would you say the work on the ground changes?

Mostly if he is working for the woodlot owner or if a subsidized treatment is being done through marketing board monitoring. Otherwise a lot of treatments are not feasible because of low wood values. A forester around here is more likely a logging contractor or silviculture contractor unless he works for a mill company. Some offer a little more than that, but it's likely tied to some form of subsidy or percentage based like in many places.

Quote
I'm not trying to split hairs, just making a point that effective education/marketing or whatever does effect some sort of change.

Our marketing boards have done all this for decades. Local owners pretty much want to know the markets first and foremost, what's done on the ground is a result for most. Silviculture will get done as long as it's subsidized, to "fix" their woodlot.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

SwampDonkey

Quote from: Tmac47 link=topic=75196.msg1141003#msg1141003

What's an FPM Board?

Forest Products Marketing Boards and various woodlot owner associations of NB

QuoteYou said that the conversation as far as the process on the wood lot goes.

However, I'm curious if you have seen any sort of negative effects from things like the green movement and going paperless?

Obviously there are immediate effects to the market and on the corporate level, but has the conversation with younger landowners been effected at all?

Certification has been looked at since the mid 90's on woodlots, something sorta hap hazard has been adopted in principle like the American Tree Farm system. As far as I know there are less than 1 % of woodlots certified because of cost. Those that have are mostly not cutting much wood or none at all. Our provincial crown lands and freehold lands (70% of our total forest) is certified.

Ever since 1992, woodlots have been in competition with crown wood. This has reduced wood volumes and prices. We no longer can bargain with mills. We are no longer "primary source of supply" as was put into the Crown Lands and Forests Act of 1982-3 when many Marketing Boards were set up.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

jwilly3879

Speaking to what Ron said, as a logger looking for timber the internet is a valuable tool. It used to mean visiting the Town Halls, looking at tax maps and assessment data and driving around. Today all that can be done from home. Add Google Earth and GIS data from Real Property Tax Services and you can now get aerial views overlaid with topo maps and so on. Then we drive around and check out the wood from the road and then contact the LO's. We are planning to add a website soon, to connect with the internet searchers and to allow the LO's we contacted to check us out without having to meet face to face initially.

SwampDonkey

The internet has created convenience but we have been able to look up lots and ownership pretty easy for 30 years at marketing board offices before internet. Using flight line maps, aerial photos, orthophoto maps and microfiche. In fact our system here made it necessary to use the maps to obtain propery ID numbers in order to move wood as we were on a wood volume ticketing system in the early years.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

timberlinetree

Not to long ago a girl was on the ff looking for advice on a log job for her parents. A logger knocked on their door and offered them money for their trees. FF members offered excellent advice. Prime example of the internet.
I've met Vets who have lived but still lost their lives... Thank a Vet

Family man and loving it :)

SwampDonkey

Yes indeed. I've also seen the same scenario unfold many times at a marketing board, with no internet involved. It all boils down to how well folks network with others, be it internet, phone conversation or personal interaction. With internet you get a wider audience, but you have to filter the information a bit because many live in other lands and often give advice in more general terms. Some of our forests are quite different to. ;)
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

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