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10 years from now

Started by mcourtney, January 14, 2014, 09:26:39 PM

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mcourtney

Was at my local saw shop today and the owner was talking to a customer about all the buy-outs and mergers in the handheld industry, said he wondered how many current brands will still be around in 10 years. Whats everybody on here think or know?

beenthere

Quotemergers in the handheld industry

Are you trying to sort out what the "handheld" industry might be in chainsaws?  And as well, what mergers of recent times...  ?? not so clear to me at the moment.
south central Wisconsin
It may be that my sole purpose in life is simply to serve as a warning to others

mcourtney

The shop owner pretty much thinks that Husky will wind up being the king of the mountain because of the corporate depth and the fact they have such deep pockets that no one else except Makita has.

deerslayer

I see Husqvarna in a somewhat parallel situation to American Motors. AMC purchased a number of smaller car companies and kept consolidating them into their line. However, other than Jeep, they didn't really bring to the market what people wanted and they are no longer.

Growth and deep pockets don't necessarily lead to sustainability. I really think that Husqvarna has damaged their reputation by selling so much cheapo stuff. While some of their stuff is top shelf, the average consumer is being exposed to more and more mediocre product and that will become what they are known for.

It reminds me a little bit of Troy Bilt. Troy Bilt had a reputation of building machines of unsurpassed quality but once they became a part of MTD their stuff is no better than any other box store mower or whatever.
Too many chainsaws, not enough wood.
Stihl, Husky, Craftsman, Mac, Homelite, Poulan. Some live here, some just passing through.

brettl

I agree. You must consider the commercial buyers to. Asplundh buys Stihl saws by the pallet here. I've heard in some parts of the country Echo is the choice of top handle saws for the commercial users. Then there's the loggers and their different brand loyalties. I wonder how big a part of their business we are, the little guys? Homeowners will keep Husqvarna alive I think. Commercial interests and those of us wanting something better will keep the Stihl, Echo, Dolmar, the better Huskies, etc. in business. IMHO

clww

Stihl North America is less than three miles from me in Virginia Beach, VA. They have kept expanding their factory for longer than the 25 years I've been here. What do you think?
Many Stihl Saws-16"-60"
"Go Ask The Other Master Chief"
18-Wheeler Driver

JohnG28

I think we'll see a pretty similar landscape to today in 10 years, at least in terms of available brands. What I wonder more is what the big ones will come up with in another 10 years. It really has been the last 10 years now where all the new technology has come out to saws ans small engines. Things like fuel injection, direct injection, who knows. Cars seem to be making things mainstream that were exotic a decade ago, direct injection coming to front of my mind along with lighter, stronger materials. Carbon fiber and titanium?? Who knows.
Stihl MS361, 460 & 200T, Jonsered 490, Jonsereds 90, Husky 350 & 142, Homelite XL and Super XL

celliott

Quote from: JohnG28 on January 15, 2014, 05:24:53 PM
I think we'll see a pretty similar landscape to today in 10 years, at least in terms of available brands. What I wonder more is what the big ones will come up with in another 10 years. It really has been the last 10 years now where all the new technology has come out to saws ans small engines. Things like fuel injection, direct injection, who knows. Cars seem to be making things mainstream that were exotic a decade ago, direct injection coming to front of my mind along with lighter, stronger materials. Carbon fiber and titanium?? Who knows.

Yup, trickle down technology.
Backup cameras used to be a luxury car option (Mercedes, Lexus) now it's standard on a Honda Civic. Self parallel parking cars, now it's an option on a Ford sedan.
That's the auto industry but it makes sense that engine technology will trickle into the OPE industry. EFI, direct injection like John said, maybe exotic materials in a chainsaw? Carbon fiber fuel tank, ultralight saws? Most likely will see more fuel efficient, better emissions (that hopefully will run awesome and last!) We shall see.

When chainsaws first came out, how many manufacturers were there? I don't know exactly but it was ALOT. Now, there are only a few major players. Same thing with automobiles. I can think of the same thing with snowmobiles too, when they first became popular, everybody had one- Kawasaki, John Deere, Evinrude to mention a few that are gone now. And only a few major players.

I think Husky\Jonsered, Stihl and Dolmar\Makita will still be the major players in 10 years.
Chris Elliott

Clark 666C cable skidder
Husqvarna and Jonsered pro saws
265rx clearing saw
Professional maple tubing installer and maple sugaring worker, part time logger

ST Ranch

Interesting Question!
From one perspective, my local husky shop now sells more chainsaws to weekend firewood cutters than loggers. Our logging operations have moved heavily towards feller bunchers and processors. His overall sales of saws is about 1/4 what it once was. His main income now is seliing yard tools [mowers blowers, weed eaters, etc] and repairing these small engine tools.
I can only count about 8 or 10 guys who are "certified" and capable of falling and bucking timber for a living.
There are almost no small scale operations in our area - the big forest companies have put most of us out of business.

IMO weekend firewood cutters will also diminsh over the next 10 years as EPA rules force us toward pellet stoves. In addition, recent changes by house insurance companies [they are demanding upgraded chimneys as well as chimney clearances] are forcing wood stoves out of business.

On the other hand, in ten years, our forest industry may return back towards smaller operations, once all the good/easy timber is gone and/or the harevest "falldown " from overcutting the MP beetle is felt. - Then more traditional chainsaw use and skidder logging may return.
By then, I expect 2 or 3 big equipment dealers will be around [Husky - Stihl and ?], but they will be diversified in their products.  I expect the EPA will realing change things as well in terms of new tech motors, electric etc.

Then again, as energy costs continue to climb, I wonder how much gas will cost or will it be even in a suitable form to use in our old standby chainsaws.
Tom
LT40G28 with mods,  Komatsu D37E crawler,
873 Bobcat with CWS log grapple,

shootingarts

I was doing a fair sized deal at my bank a few years back and the banker got to talking. The second tier companies are where the most action takes place. The bank was very old and respected and had several dozen branches or so, less than a hundred I believe. The lady said that they were a target for acquisition, big enough to be a nice plum, small enough for the major players to swing a deal on pretty easily, low billions, you know just loose change!

She didn't know of anything in the wind, I think she was honest about that, but she expected a takeover in the next few years, hostile or friendly, and she was at a level of management where her future was uncertain if there was a takeover. She seemed to know her stuff about takeovers, it did happen to that bank a couple years later!

My guess, while there can be super mergers and surprises, Stihl isn't going anywhere, neither is Husqvarna. I don't know other saw's standing anywhere but in the US, Dolmar may be pretty solid or may be a perfect plum, one of the nicer second tier players. Anybody else is likely to mix and match.

Several things I do and have done for decades, the pro's have became the minor players. Uncomfortable as it is to admit to, expect pro lines of saws to shrink with each company maybe offering three or four pro saws including a top handle, maybe only a couple. Some will simply abandon the pro market or keep one "status" saw. They may label them differently but the market will become the bottom of the line homeowner saws and a class they may label something else but that is only a slight upgrade from the bottom of the line saws.

"Earthquake" is gonna rule!

Hu

Spike60

I've been in the industry for over 25 years so I've got a good feel for what's been happening as well as what's likely to happen. Some of you guys have made some comments that I fully agree with. Couple others are Disneyland stuff.  :)

To a degree, there's not that many small fish left to be swallowed up by the big guys. They've pretty much gobbled up all of the smaller players over the last 20-30 years. Husky and Stihl really have the top 2 spots sewed up, and I don't see that changing. Any sentiments that one or the other is in a vulnerable position is IMO simply the product of the poster's brand bias. Echo is also a strong handheld player. Maybe not so much in saws, but in the handheld business overall. They recently "absorbed" Shindaiwa as everyone knows. These 3 companies are the only ones that are large enough to develope the technology that's necessary in todays market. Dolmar is in an odd place here. Parent company Makita is also certainly large enough to play with the big boys, but power equipment isn't their main gig. Will they get enough out of OPE to stay interested? Hard to say. Guess that leaves Solo and Efco, and IMO not in such a good place. I don't see these companies going anywhere except away. They'll never achieve the market share to justify developing products for the US.

But what about all of those Chinese saws on alibaba and elsewhere? What inroads can all of that stuff make? We see things like Earthquake and Powerhorse brands. Big question is how much of it can get EPA certification. My guess is that this stuff could make a good sized dent in the Wild Thing market, but little impact beyond that. Funny thing is that with all of those saws in almost every color, a huge jump in available brands of saws would be like turning back the clock to the 60's where there were too many brands to keep track of.
Husqvarna-Jonsered
Ashokan Turf and Timber
845-657-6395

bandmiller2

Ole Spike pretty much nailed it. Big companys buy out smaller ones for a couple of reasons first they want their patends and tech. second they want to eliminate competition. Stihl and Husky don't really need anything the little fellas have.  Frank C.
A man armed with common sense is packing a big piece

Timbertron

Just my opinion.. but spike hit it on the money for that point. So where are we going in 10 years. honesty who really knows. but my thought is we are watching the end of the 2 stroke hand held power equipment. epa is wanting 15%ethonal in the fuels by 2020  we all know what that dose to the fuel lines.  the 2 stroke has been labeled as a high emission engine since its inception in the early days now technology is making them cleaner more efficient but they are getting to the point that where the engine will not be efficient enough for the job it was meant to do with fuel efficiency that the epa deams exceptable .  what next then look to the alternative power sources and I think you will get your answer batteries and electrical and other smaller more effiecent altnative engines/motors will be the new
look at the auto industry early years muscle cars , big block trucks, now more mpg and less power and electric cars but hey with the electric motors torque power will be thru the roof so its a sad day when the epa kills us off and the industrys just go with the flow

HolmenTree

As curious as I am about chainsaw powerhead development in the future, I'm even more curious what saw chain will develop into.
Saw chain today is similar to the same basic design as it was almost 70 years ago, what and when will the next big design change be?
Making a living with a saw since age 16.

Spike60

Quote from: HolmenTree on January 22, 2014, 05:38:24 PM
As curious as I am about chainsaw powerhead development in the future, I'm even more curious what saw chain will develop into.
Saw chain today is similar to the same basic design as it was almost 70 years ago, what and when will the next big design change be?

I do know that a well known company is planning on coming out with their own line of chain. So, there may be some new ideas there.  :)
Husqvarna-Jonsered
Ashokan Turf and Timber
845-657-6395

bandmiller2

I'am not the sharpest tool in the shed but I think all portable tools will go electric, especially with more advances in battery tech. Frank C.
A man armed with common sense is packing a big piece

HolmenTree

Quote from: Spike60 on January 23, 2014, 07:05:58 AM
Quote from: HolmenTree on January 22, 2014, 05:38:24 PM
As curious as I am about chainsaw powerhead development in the future, I'm even more curious what saw chain will develop into.
Saw chain today is similar to the same basic design as it was almost 70 years ago, what and when will the next big design change be?

I do know that a well known company is planning on coming out with their own line of chain. So, there may be some new ideas there.  :)
Would that be the Chain-Sert company? I got one of their tooth samples, pretty impressive. Their talking about making this chain as small as .404- 3/8".
Old technology though a sawchain company back in the 1950s introduced a replaceable cutter insert design, can't think of the name at the moment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J22kEXAC6uo&desktop_uri:
Making a living with a saw since age 16.

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