What's next...

[HiTech]

        Was just sitting here wondering what is next in logging? I can remember hearing the stories from my grandfather of the lumber camps. Floating logs down rivers or across lakes. Being able to shave with an axe and drawing nice shavings with a crosscut. ( still have two of his saws) Water wagons for freezing roads. They had real winters back then. Seems the bigger and better the equipment gets the less and less you get paid for wood. What is next after feller bunchers and tractor trailers? How much wood will you have to cut and haul in a day to pay the bills? Will the $400,000 to $500,000 machines be $4 and $5 million dollar machines? Just tires and chains have doubled in the last three years. $4.30 a gallon for diesel. What's next? I was just wondering?

[AlexInman06]

I had a landowner try to tell me he has seen a cutting machine that used a high pressure water jet to cut trees??? I don't really know how much truth there is to that, but eventually maybe some crazy stuff like that?

[mark686]

how about drones for doing all the work herd they use them in some mines already :D

[1270d]

how about drones for doing all the work herd they use them in some mines already :D

There are vids of remotely operated harvesters in Europe.   I'll see if I can dredge one up.

[newstick]

I've always joked that some day that there would be a harvester that rolls of paper came out just like a hay baler.

[cutter88]

I had a landowner try to tell me he has seen a cutting machine that used a high pressure water jet to cut trees??? I don't really know how much truth there is to that, but eventually maybe some crazy stuff like that?

well they can cut steele plate and cement with water jet cutting so theres no reason they couldent cut a tree...

[smwwoody]

yea but then they would make us recover the water because it would be contaminated with tannic acid or something. >:(

[beenthere]

so theres no reason they couldent cut a tree

Different ones have been working on that idea for a good 40 years. Researcher in MI was one, and think the name was something like Bryant.

So far, only thin wood can be cut as the jet nozzle can't keep the jet stream focused on a point for any distance into wood. Things like puzzles are cut out using water jet, as well as some laser beam cutting.
But no magic breakthroughs seem to be on the horizon.

In the 60's there were people saying that saw blades, circular and band, were on their way out and would be replaced soon. 
Hmmm... Didn't happen...... yet.

[thecfarm]

I use to play with robots,water jets at a job I had. They was used to cut out interior trunk parts made out of carpet.

[thenorthman]

Water jet and Laser are both overrated... (I make lasers in my day job fyi...) neither one is very accurate.  Both take huge amounts of energy... So don't worry about it to much ;D I'm not...

Personally I see a move towards smaller outfits, running more fuel efficient machines... less processors more hand work...  Diesel is getting ridiculously expensive, forcing the spanking new processors to process more wood to pay for their fuel... eventually someone is going to figure out that burning ten to fifteen gallons in a small skidder a day is better then ten to fifteen and hour...

[Decked]

I used to tease my cutter guy..invent a neat-o laser beam to cut 'em...maybe you wouldn't get THAT pinched! :D

[Paper Maker]

I've always joked that some day that there would be a harvester that rolls of paper came out just like a hay baler.

I hope not because then I would be out of a job.

[SwampDonkey]

A lot of those harvesters have down sized since the 80's. They used to take those Koerings into a stand of hardwood around here and load the whole tree onto the bunk, along with the tops, debark it on the landing, shove it through a chipper into a van. Off to the mill with pulp chips.

I think everything runs full circle. After awhile those comfortable machines get too expensive to be practical. Logging has got to be about the only job where efficiency is rewarded by a cut in pay rate. Someday, folks are going to say to heck with that noise and the pulp mills will close or again assume the role as owners of harvesting equipment with a man in the seat paid by the hour. The only way to eliminate the man in the seat is to make intelligent machines. In a factory setting a robot gets the job done, it's movements follow the exact same path for every assembly. Out in the woods it is not that simple, a robot has no awareness of changes in operating conditions....weather, terrain, a beaver pond, a cliff ahead.

[snowstorm]

I use to play with robots,water jets at a job I had. They was used to cut out interior trunk parts made out of carpet.

was that at form fiber in aurbun?

[thecfarm]

snowstorm,yes it was. By the entrance to the turnpike.

[cutter88]

Water jet and Laser are both overrated... (I make lasers in my day job fyi...) neither one is very accurate.  Both take huge amounts of energy... So don't worry about it to much ;D I'm not...

Personally I see a move towards smaller outfits, running more fuel efficient machines... less processors more hand work...  Diesel is getting ridiculously expensive, forcing the spanking new processors to process more wood to pay for their fuel... eventually someone is going to figure out that burning ten to fifteen gallons in a small skidder a day is better then ten to fifteen and hour...

Mr, I like your way of thinken

[Offthebeatenpath]

Cfarm- I've known a few folks who worked at Gates (if that's still the name).

I agree with Cutter88.  I like the your philosophy northman and hope you're right. The smaller the better in my opinion...

[thecfarm]

Gates was a while ago,now it's Formed Fiber,or was 2 years ago.

[Autocar]

In my opinion whats next will be finding a sawmill to sell your wood to every month in forestery magazines theres four to six mills closing there doors.

[log cutter]

eventually someone is going to figure out that burning ten to fifteen gallons in a small skidder a day is better then ten to fifteen and hour...
Please explain to me how a little skidder is more efficient on fuel than say a 748g3.  You have to figure fuel in cost per tons moved or Bd. ft or per

[Tmac47]

Is this question directed strictly towards the progression of timber hardware in the industry (skidders n' such) or does it also beg the question, "What's next in software?".

There are a lot of apps and next-gen type software popping up all over the place.  I think Plum Creek is currently using a pretty expensive tracking/logistics system and Weyerhauser is trying to hunt down something similar.

[thenorthman]

eventually someone is going to figure out that burning ten to fifteen gallons in a small skidder a day is better then ten to fifteen and hour...
Please explain to me how a little skidder is more efficient on fuel than say a 748g3.  You have to figure fuel in cost per tons moved or Bd. ft or per

Its not just the skidder drinking fuel.  748 is a huge machine compared to a say a 440, or a garrett, so yeah it can move more wood, if the wood is there to be moved.

The problem arises when you have a processor, a loader, a feller buncher, all drinking around 4 gallons an hour.  granted they are moving a pile of wood, but at what cost?  Off road Diesel round here is somewhere around $3.70, what happens when it (not if) it shoots up to $8. or $10 a gallon?

If you where to down size and maybe hire a hand full of cutters, and run one or two skidders, fuel consumption would likely drop by more then half, production would take a slight hit,  but likely less then losing any one of the above machines.  Not to mention all the associated maintenance costs, paying for the machines, paying the operators, moving the machines from job to job. Before you know it to stay competitive you have $1,500,000. just to start cutting.  And then "jones logging" down the street well they have two feller bunchers and... its a vicious cycle.

Meanwhile, on 20 some odd acres, my first load of logs I break even on moving the machine in and out (in reality probably still turn a bit of a profit) the second load minus 20 gallons of diesel, goes in the bank, the third in my pocket, rinse and repeat.

Granted insurance is in there somewhere, and wages if I have to pay them.   Gods forbid I have a break down now... but after the third load should be ok...

[log cutter]

If you have a machine that uses 4 gal of fuel per hour it is still cheaper 1 hour of L&I in the state of Wash. the base rate for a man on the ground is $18 per hour. So one one hand your fuel bill does go down but on the other hand your labor cost goes up. So I guess it is what are you more comfortable with. Around here the guy s who didn't adapt to mechanized went out of business. Labor cost and not being able to compete on price with those who modernized. And if there are plenty of jobs the big guys will not mess with the little 20 acre jobs but if there isn't a lot of jobs they will do those small ones. And everyone one of them have a lowboy and move their own equipment and you will be sitting home or going broke trying to compete. I agree it is a vicious cycle but it is what it is. Here is what I see a lot on this site, a lot of guys here look at a number and say that they couldn't afford it . and with their current production and equipment line up they are right. But when you break down their numbers, they will find their cost per unit is higher than the guys running bigger more efficient. How ever they are operating in their comfort zone. And no matter what size one chooses to be ,if they are covering all their cost and making a go of it.My hat is off to them .   

[SwampDonkey]

It's a false hood to just look at fuel. You have a huge investment in equipment to have the safety and comfort the industry has come to demand. Many of the mills who you cut for are the finance companies getting all that interest on the loan they made for you to buy all those machines. A new skidder is run for 30 years, how long is a feller buncher run? I don't know of many getting rich because their production went up on wood harvesting. When production goes up price/cubic meter drops accordingly and cost of capital needed to move it goes way up. Unlike in a pulp mill where the wage goes up.

[thenorthman]

It probably has more to to with scale than anything else.

The big boys can keep going with big equipment, I'm not trying to compete with them (that's kinda the whole idea).

Its a hypothetical theory, that I'm basing my logging business off of.  More and more outfits around here are buying up big machines.  But the down side is they have to get bigger and bigger units to pay for them, yet not many of them are making money?  Its kinda like the big farms in the midwest, to make money as a "farmer" conventional wisdom says you need to farm more dirt, to farm more dirt you need to have a bigger tractor, big tractor means big payments, well now you need to farm more dirt to pay for the big tractor and still put food on the table, so now you need a bigger tractor to farm even more dirt... same goes for logging.

[Woodboogah]

I am a small operation hand cutting.  Just me and a machine.  I was having this conversation with an old timer over the weekend.  My opinion is that the big outfits are buying machines that can do the work so much faster and just blow through wood that its driving the price at the mill down because they get choked with wood.  When you factor in fuel, insurance, the note on equipment, payroll, lost time for breakdowns, it almost seems like its a cash flow thing with razor thin profit margins.  Being a small outfit I dont even want to try to compete with a larger operation, there are woodlots for them and the small guy.  i think over time you will see handcutters possibly making a comeback if the cost or working keeps rising and the price of wood keeps falling there will be a point when you just cant justify it.  But anyways big or small its the love of the work, nobody is getting rich from working in the woods.

[log cutter]

I have several good friends that are high production loggers. Their monthly fuel is north of a 100,000.00. And yes they do have a large investment in equipment, but they're are also very sharp business men. They manage their debt load very well. They hardly ever buy brand new but look for low hr machines or machines that have been maintained really well  and at the end of the logging season everything is paid off.
And yes there have been many financial disasters among loggers. Some self infected  and some where a sawmill did set them up and they were operating way beyond their level and understanding. One of the loggers that I mentioned above ,he and I were discussing how many contractors have came and gone. It was over 50 and that was just the ones we could remember. So logger turnover is nothing new.An old time told me one time that an old timer told him was"when we were skidding with horse we were barely making it , then came along dozers and chains saws and we've still just making it, now with all this new stuff we're still just barely making it."   .
But getting back to the post topic ,What I see is the sawmill's thinning of the herd will continue those that survive will draw logs from a bigger area. also the sawmills will specialize in order not to compete with one another for logs thus keep the prices down. The impact of Real Estate Investment Trusts and Timber Investment groups will keep the prices down. The lower log prices are,the move volume they cut to satisfy their investors return. The bright spot here is the export market.

As far as new advancement in equipment I don't see much happening. Not like what the chainsaw did or  blades on a cat did.

Now logging methods are changing here. One of the local firms are changing how they harvest to be more like the south states. clear cut it and plant it to be more of a tree plantation.

However with all this rambling, I still see opportunity for those willing to take the risk,weather it be a high production logger or a small one man show.

   

[thenorthman]

The trick is deciding early whether you want to spend big money to maybe make big money, but be a slave to the mill/bank, or spend a little and be in business for yourself.  Comes down to personal choices in the end.

By the way 100k fuel bills sorta bounce off my forehead I just can't comprehend spending that much on a consumable...

[Tmac47]

The trick is deciding early whether you want to spend big money to maybe make big money, but be a slave to the mill/bank, or spend a little and be in business for yourself.  Comes down to personal choices in the end.

By the way 100k fuel bills sorta bounce off my forehead I just can't comprehend spending that much on a consumable...

I'm talking to a timber dealer who has 40 crews in Central Florida.  They deliver about 1.4m tons of wood to the mill every year...  Try to comprehend that  ;D

[thenorthman]

your saying there are 70,000 log loads coming out of Florida? (20 ton loads) thats 1166 loads per crew, or 22 loads a week, or 4.6 loads a day (5 day week) Does that sound low for the average mechanized crew?


Using the previous reply of 100k fuel bill and a made up number of $2k per load. That would mean that you gross $184000 minus 100k in fuel leaves 84000 to pay for machines and wages figure a crew of 5 at lets say $20 hour $16000 leaving 68000 each machine would have around a 2k payment (4 machines?) 8k leaving 60000, then you gotta pay trucking.  $300 a load or 26400 a month. leaving 33600, and stumpage gets 10% (guestimate) leaving 30240.  Now a crew this big is bound to have a supervisor and an acountant and a secretary, a mechanic, each making $20. an hour taking a further $16000. leaving

$14,240.

Don't leave a whole lot of wiggle room does it, if fuel goes up just .50 that would eat another $13513.5 if it goes up $1. who gets fired?

The numbers I get but paying for all of that well...

[Tmac47]

your saying there are 70,000 log loads coming out of Florida? (20 ton loads) thats 1166 loads per crew, or 22 loads a week, or 4.6 loads a day (5 day week) Does that sound low for the average mechanized crew?

Yeah, that does sound low.  They must not operate at the 40 crew rate all the time.  9 loads per day, per tract, sounds more in line with the nominal average.

[Tmac47]

The numbers I get but paying for all of that well...

Generally, trucking companies have their mileage per ton delivered covered by the timber buyer and are contracted out.

There are very few all-in-one type companies, which buy the timber, log it, and truck it, left in the industry.  The fact that the risk is exponentially higher as you take on more responsibility is a big reason for this.

Generally you just have a buyer, who contracts out the logging and trucking separately.  Thus, keeping costs lower and margins higher.

However, when everything is contracted out, if you're not on top of your game, someone is bound to get the short-end of the stick.

[log cutter]

The contractors I mentioned have their own trucks plus subcontractors, One has 25 pieces of iron in the bush. Added crew pick ups and Log trucks and other support vehicles (service trucks). doesn't take long to go through a tanker truck of diesel. The other doesn't have quite as many machines in the bush but has more trucks as trucking is a major part of his business. Ten trucks using a 100 gal. at $4.00 per gal is $80,000.00 per month. I know the diesel usage number seems high but on an export load it take right at a 100 gals. per trip. 4 mountain passes to climb.
On a mechanical side they should be putting out at least an load an hour but closer to two,All depends on wood size , distance to skid and how steep the ground is.

[thenorthman]

The contractors I mentioned have their own trucks plus subcontractors, One has 25 pieces of iron in the bush. Added crew pick ups and Log trucks and other support vehicles (service trucks). doesn't take long to go through a tanker truck of diesel. The other doesn't have quite as many machines in the bush but has more trucks as trucking is a major part of his business. Ten trucks using a 100 gal. at $4.00 per gal is $80,000.00 per month. I know the diesel usage number seems high but on an export load it take right at a 100 gals. per trip. 4 mountain passes to climb.
On a mechanical side they should be putting out at least an load an hour but closer to two,All depends on wood size , distance to skid and how steep the ground is.

I take it they are trucking them all the way to Ever-rot or Tacoma, that there is a long hike... maybe even Aberdeen? 

[cutter88]

The trick is deciding early whether you want to spend big money to maybe make big money, but be a slave to the mill/bank, or spend a little and be in business for yourself.  Comes down to personal choices in the end.

By the way 100k fuel bills sorta bounce off my forehead I just can't comprehend spending that much on a consumable...

lol northman I was thinking the same thing... I was upset when my wife made me spend that much on our house I cant even comprehend a fuel bill for that mine was 2700 last month and I was all in a dither hahaha