iDRY Vacuum Kilns

Sponsors:

US lumber prices forecast to soar in 2013 and reach record highs in 2014.

Started by Grower, December 24, 2012, 10:47:21 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Grower

Its better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.

Okrafarmer

He that dwelleth in the secret place of the most High shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty. Psalm 91:1

Operating a 2020 Woodmizer LT35 hydraulic for Upcountry Sawmill, Dacusville, SC

Now selling Logrite tools!

Writing fiction and nonfiction! Check my website.

WDH

Woodmizer LT40HDD35, John Deere 2155, Kubota M5-111, Kubota L2501, Nyle L53 Dehumidification Kiln, and a passion for all things with leafs, twigs, and bark.  hamsleyhardwood.com

paul case

I was drawn to the good news in the article then at the end it says something to the effect that it depends on us not having a continuing recession. It is good news no doubt.

I am looking forward to the timber/lumber business being on the upswing. I hope the predictions are correct. I know Tim Cook  had an article in their magazine in 2009 or 2010 where he could forsee things being on an upswing.

Here is the real tickler. I bought a mill and started custom sawing when the economy tanked here in 2008. I have been making a good living at it ever since. Not setting the world on fire , but a good living. That is being my own boss and making a wage that is as much or more than working for DA MAN. Maybe in 2013 I will be able to make enuf to need to hire some help and maybe buy a new sawmill or some more support equipment.

Who knows what the future holds? I know who knows what the future holds!

:christmas:

PC
life is too short to be too serious. (some idiot)
2013 LT40SHE25 and Riehl edger,  WM 94 LT40 hd E15. Cut my sawing ''teeth'' on an EZ Boardwalk
sawing oak.hickory,ERC,walnut and almost anything else that shows up.
Don't get phylosophical with me. you will loose me for sure.
pc

petefrom bearswamp

Good news is always nicer to hear than Doom and Gloom.
Hope this is true as I will need to sell some stumpage in 2014.
Pete
Kubota 8540 tractor, FEL bucket and forks, Farmi winch
Kubota 900 RTV
Polaris 570 Sportsman ATV
3 Huskies 1 gas Echo 1 cordless Echo vintage Homelite super xl12
57 acres of woodland

Kansas

We started bumping prices some months back. Just the phone calls we get, you can feel it. Its all been on the pallet side of lumber though. I haven't yet seen it stirring on hardwood grade lumber. But I do expect that to start. The existing home inventory is at near low levels. Less than 700,000 homes on the market. That is nothing compared to the number of homes total. People are holding on, either because they are still underwater, or they feel the upswing in prices. I have another barometer too. One of our customers makes special pallets for a company that makes mailboxes, both the single ones for homes, and the bigger unit ones for apartment complexes. Back when he got the job, back in 2006 or 07, we had to cut log after log for cants to run through the resaw. That was actually why we bought it. Then at some point, business slowed down enough that we could get all we needed off the side pieces of whatever we were cutting run through the gang edger, then the resaw. 2 weeks ago, for the first time in a very long time, we had to grab a few logs and turn into cants and resaw them to take care of him. Last week, he had possibly the biggest invoice ever. Granted, some of that was new business that he picked up. The thing is, his customers don't seem to be complaining on price. 2 or 3 years ago, they were. On his new business, we have bumped prices up a bunch. And he still is getting it.

Al_Smith

Lumber business or whatever historically always following a down turn in the economy it's followed by an upsurge .

If one were to to look up the amounts of automobiles made during a certain year it pretty much patterns the economy for those praticular years .

Palletts for example .If they ship product they need pallets and excepting the types made for industry made of plastics for CNC type automatic machinery they need wood .

ouachita

Heard the same message from the General Manager of three sawmills making air dryed studs.  Biggest problem will be getting loggers in the woods  and truckers to deliver both to and from the mills.  Labor is going to be a big, big deal.

Ouachita

Al_Smith

Well I suppose just like anything they pay enough money ,they'll get the help .They want to play tight wad they won't .

Grower

It was 18 years ago that timber payout was $NZ80/tonne and we know that because its what we were paid for two plantations we had taken out at the time. It has languished around the $30 mark ever since although the export prices are much higher the drawback with that price is that all the costs have to come off which brings alot of those prices back to par. Anyway, 60% of our county has now been converted to dairy which means trees by the 1,000 have been either milled at give away prices or pushed into huge piles and burnt over the last 10 years. I've seen it all. 10 million has been nothing for the bankers to lend for such conversions to take place. Me? One of our farm titles is now debt free and thats how its staying, its a long time between drinks.
Its better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.

Okrafarmer

I am happy for anyone who has a debt-free farm title. Congratulations! The idea that if I ever got a farm, I would probably never have one debt-free caused me to largely give up on the idea of farming. Well, I am glad to know it can be done. As a former small-time shepherd, I salute you.  :)
He that dwelleth in the secret place of the most High shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty. Psalm 91:1

Operating a 2020 Woodmizer LT35 hydraulic for Upcountry Sawmill, Dacusville, SC

Now selling Logrite tools!

Writing fiction and nonfiction! Check my website.

Grower

Ive still got a few sheep, its a small time business compared now to the dairy farms. We have leased most of our farm out, to a tennant who grazes dairy cows.
Its better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.

Tree Killer

Quote from: WDH on December 25, 2012, 08:03:45 AM
Most forecasts are positive.
Yup sounds good to me too !! we could use some good years for the industry.Its been along time coming.

Okrafarmer

As long as the extra housing on the market gets "moved into", we should be seeing the house building market pick back up. In my own limited scope observation, I think I am seeing a shift recently in "quality versus quantity." People who are not building or buying new houses are taking the time to renovate their existing houses and change to "real materials" rather than the cheap substitutes that were sometimes used in construction. Meaning, people are putting in hardwood floors, mantels, additional trim work, better bath and kitchen fixtures, marble counters, nicer doors and windows, and so on, to spiffy up their MacMansions and make them a little more genuine. I have a couple friends here locally who are contractors, and that's what they've been doing a bunch of. Smaller houses are getting a lot of renovation, too. People who realize they are not going to be able to afford to move for a good while are putting some money into renovations so they can enjoy their existing home a little more and hopefully raise its value for when they go to sell it in a few years. I am considering such renovations, myself. . .
He that dwelleth in the secret place of the most High shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty. Psalm 91:1

Operating a 2020 Woodmizer LT35 hydraulic for Upcountry Sawmill, Dacusville, SC

Now selling Logrite tools!

Writing fiction and nonfiction! Check my website.

harrymontana

Quote from: Okrafarmer on January 08, 2013, 08:51:18 AM
As long as the extra housing on the market gets "moved into", we should be seeing the house building market pick back up. In my own limited scope observation, I think I am seeing a shift recently in "quality versus quantity." People who are not building or buying new houses are taking the time to renovate their existing houses and change to "real materials" rather than the cheap substitutes that were sometimes used in construction. Meaning, people are putting in hardwood floors, mantels, additional trim work, better bath and kitchen fixtures, marble counters, nicer doors and windows, and so on, to spiffy up their MacMansions and make them a little more genuine. I have a couple friends here locally who are contractors, and that's what they've been doing a bunch of. Smaller houses are getting a lot of renovation, too. People who realize they are not going to be able to afford to move for a good while are putting some money into renovations so they can enjoy their existing home a little more and hopefully raise its value for when they go to sell it in a few years. I am considering such renovations, myself. . .

I love to hear this: "Meaning, people are putting in hardwood floors,.."
2nd observation I want to make is that also in 2008 all orders were cancelled, everyone was scared, then 2009, all mills had very little stock and buyers fell over eachother so prices were up in record time. I can tell from my own stock and collegues close to me here in Bolivia and Brazil that the same is true for present day. So I can't wait for the new hardwood flooring orders to emerge!!
everything on hardwood

Bogue Chitto

 

  

  We have been holding on to this timber for a while (Trying to get good price). Needed to be thinned for a while.  Finley the price edged up and we started to cut.  Hopefully it will keep going up. ;) ???   

Thank You Sponsors!