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Author Topic: economic forecast US?  (Read 1497 times)

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Offline roquevalente

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economic forecast US?
« on: January 12, 2012, 05:55:21 pm »
hello, reading the forum I know you guys are mostly located in US and some also in Canada and I was wondering what your opinion is about the economic forecast for 2012, we are a hardwood mill based in Bolivia specialized in ipe decking and ipe flooring and our order portfolio is way down so we are wondering what is next. I appreciate all your comments, good and bad. www.roquevalente.com
Roque Valente SRL is a ipe hardwood mill located in the Bolivian forest specialized in milling and logging - www.roquevalente.com

Offline ellmoe

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2012, 08:47:17 pm »
   For the lumber industry, I don't see much of a recovery this year. However, there is less competition now than there was, so individual mills may fair better.
Mark
Mark, Wildlife Biologist (in my previous life), now 2 HD40E25's, Weining Promat, Koetter Kilns (2), Sore back and arthritic fingers!

Offline SPIKER

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2012, 10:14:54 pm »
housing is picking up, new starts and sales of older homes.   the repo market has mostly peaked (some areas bad yet) and the bank new foreclosure market is decreasing...
this is per news stories & stock market news


mark
I'm looking for help all the shrinks have given up on me :o

Offline WDH

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2012, 10:16:47 pm »
The Forest Economists that I know are seeing another slow year.  Unfortunately.
Woodmizer LT40HDD35, John Deere 2155, Kubota M5640SU, Nyle L53 Dehumidification Kiln, and a passion for all things with leafs, twigs, and bark.  hamsleyhardwood.com

Offline Side loader

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2012, 10:17:56 pm »
I agree. My 2 cents says 2012 is going to be similar to this past year (not good) Maybe a little better.  Things won't get back right till housing comes back and even then surplus inventory will have to be used up which will take even longer. Maybe biomass/pellets is the saving grace. Who knows? Public policy, liability, global markets, housing, politics, fuel costs, all are variables in the great equation but in my humble opinion housing is the key.
Side loader log truck w/492 Detroit, bell super T feller buncher, Barko 160 with JD power, Kubota M4900 with brush raker grapple on front and shop built bunching grapple on back. JD 350B Dozer; JD 548D skidder;  and a couple of saws.

Offline ellmoe

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2012, 07:11:14 am »
   Foreclosures declined in a large part because of problems with "robosigning"(improperly processed paperwork). Rectifying this slowed down the process. I believe we will see close to the same amount of foreclosures this year. Banks are also sitting on a large inventory of foreclosed properties. Sales of bank owned proerties have been withheld as to not glut the market. If Ga. Pa. thought that home sales were soon to rebound they wouldn't have just closed another plywood mill, this one in Hawthorne,Fla..

Mark
Mark, Wildlife Biologist (in my previous life), now 2 HD40E25's, Weining Promat, Koetter Kilns (2), Sore back and arthritic fingers!

Offline jueston

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2012, 10:12:34 am »
I feel that unfortunately there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the US economy, housing and building is based on population growth, the baby boomers are downsizing and there are more people moving from houses to massive apartment complexes then there are people doing the opposite, I live in a neighborhood were maybe ¼ of the houses are empty and every day I see a wrecking crew working on reducing another house to black dirt with a little straw on top for erosion.
The American population is going to decline in the next 10 years (or more?) so why would we need to build very many new houses?
I don’t mean to sound pessimistic but I have been trying to flip houses for years now, and this is what I see in my dealings with the real estate market.
The only hope I see is that once the mills that cannot make it shut down, that will leave a little elbow room for those that do survive…

Offline woodtroll

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2012, 10:47:33 am »
Locally are prices are down, and supply is glutted. We were watching the European and Asian markets, both are down.

I do not think we have hit our lowest yet. That is still to come for this region.

Welcome to the forum

Offline HiTech

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2012, 11:17:02 am »
   I don't foresee any improvement in our Economy. You need jobs for that and stamped Made in America. As for the Stock Market....that is run on hearsay, rumor and fear. A few very Rich manipulate it the way they want it. Logs that you used to get say $600/M for you are lucky if you get $225 for now. After trucking you might make a little. You could probably make more selling them as firewood. This could be another bad year.

Offline roquevalente

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Re: economic forecast US?
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2012, 05:49:03 pm »
wow, thanks a lot for all your input, I read on average that is quite negative. It is interesting, I am on the other end, exporting ipe decking and flooring to the US, but now much less, and what is interesting that new markets and economies are truely picking up, just shipped to Turkey and yesterday new client from India. The way I see it is that these new economies, especially China of course are built on 1st world money and now they use it against this same 1st world in their own best interest. Thank you once again for your input
Roque Valente SRL is a ipe hardwood mill located in the Bolivian forest specialized in milling and logging - www.roquevalente.com