pickens plan 3yrs later

[red]

t boones pickens is making the media rounds 3 years into the pickens plan

[jdtuttle]

OK I'll bite  ;D What's the Pickens Plan  ???
jim

[Kansas]

A lot of it has to do with switching vehicles to natural gas. Its actually a good idea. Slight problem though; T Boon Pickens is heavily invested in natural gas. A whole lot of conflict of interest. Seems to me there was something about wind energy too.

[LOGDOG]

Pickens was a little quick out of the gate. He didn't realize we'd have the collapse in the economy we did and then an Administration that's anti- natural gas and oil. The fact is though, Natural Gas is coming to a town near you on the automotive side. It's already here. We have several stations in the area. I took these pictures a few weeks ago at a station in town. Look at the prices and then compare it to what you're paying for Unleaded. The Flying J truckstops are putting in CNG pumps coast to coast. There will be stations in every one of the lower 48 states.   Chesapeake energy just made a big investment in the process as well. $150 Million I believe. I'll have to pull the article up again.

Here are the prices:



Here's what the pumps look like:



Here's what the fill nozzle looks like. Notice the 3600 psi.


Here you can see the price and how it's sold. PPGE = Price Per Gallon Equivalent.



Saudi Arabia just spent something like $180 Billion to begin switching their entire economy over to Nat Gas. Now, why would the country who is sitting on 250 Billion barrels of oil reserves decide to do that at this particular moment in time? Why would the majors in the USA be buying up all the Nat Gas reserves they can from smaller independent producers? There's a reason.  ;)

[Ianab]

CNG works OK as a vehicle fuel, NZ had a lot of cars running on it a few years back (later 70s, early 80s). But it does have a few down sides. The tanks are heavy for the amount of fuel they hold, and that limits the range between fill ups. And the CNG inherently has less power. Unless the engine is running a turbo and you can adjust the boost, you will notice a drop in power. You can't just adjust the mixture like Ethanol, and get the power back by a bit burning more.

Apart from that, it worked, and the conversion doesn't loose the petrol fuel system, so you can change back with a dashboard switch if you are on a trip away from the filling station. Fuel economy was pretty good at low speed, better than petrol as the fuel is injected as a gas, and mixes properly, even at low revs.

But LPG (propane) is a better option for cars. The tanks aren't high pressure, so they are lighter, and hold a similar fuel equivalent to petrol. LPG conversions are still sold here, but mainly to delivery drivers and taxis, where the high mileage means they save enough to make the cost worthwhile. I think Ford Australia is building cars with dedicated LPG systems from the factory.

Ian

[Brucer]

A bit of possibly useful trivia for you. There's a series of chemically related hydrocarbons known as the "parafin hydrcarbons". You'll recognize some of them for sure.

NAME	Mol Wt	Boiling Temp	Density		Liq pressure
		Deg C	g/ml		PSI
Methane	16	-162	0.00072	gas	1000+
Ethane	30	-88	0.0014	gas	600+
Propane	44	-42	0.002	gas	40
Butane	58	-0.6	***	gas	3
Pentane	72	36	.62	liq	N/A
Hexane	86	69	0.66	liq	N/A
Heptane	100	98	0.68	liq	N/A
Octane	114	126	0.70	liq	N/A
Nonane	128	151	0.72	liq	N/A
Decane	142	174	0.73	liq	N/A

Notice how every column follows a trend. Boiling temperature increases, Density increases (and makes a big jump when the gas is normally liquid. Note in particular how the pressure to liquefy the gases drops.

It only takes about 40 PSI to liquefy propane, so a metal tank with relatively thin walls will do the job. And it only takes 3 PSI to liquefy Butane, which is why you can use plastic in a disposable lighter.

Natural gas is made up of Methane and Ethane. It's not worth trying to liquefy it for vehicle use -- the containers would be way too heavy.

These numbers are rounded off. I will see if I can add to the table in the next couple of days.

[WildDog]

I think Ford Australia is building cars with dedicated LPG systems from the factory.

Your right there, back in 2003 we bought 10 Ford utilities that were dedicated LPG. I am no mechanic but opperationally I couldn't tell the difference.

[red]

we have a natural gas line in the street and there is a pumping station available for the garage cost about 3000 but only new car is honda for 27000 flea bay has some used fleet vehicles but i was told tanks usualy need to be replaced

[Kansas]

There has been a refueling station for years in a small city near me. Farmers have used natural gas on irrigation pumps where its available, also some use propane.

Didn't realize the flying J truck stops were all putting it in. You can bet the big truck lines will be converting. No good reason not to. Guess Detroit is coming out with some cars before long as well.

[LOGDOG]

Yep, check out this company called Westport: http://www.westport.com/

They're a leader in producing Natural Gas engines. Almost all of Chesapeake Energy's fleet of pickup trucks here run on CNG. Our municipalities have changed over and bought buses that run on CNG. Next are the Garbage trucks. They apparently are some of the least efficient users of fuel historically.

Read this article: http://www.chk.com/news/articles/Pages/1583997.aspx

That's the Chesapeake investment article I spoke of earlier. $155 Million investment in the next three years to build out LNG fueling infrastructure along Interstate Highways for Heavy Duty Trucks. Awesome!!! With plans to invest $1 Billion over the next 10 years. I believe Encana is working on something similar. Down here, Encana is also partnered with Shell Oil.

It's coming. T. Boone was a tad early, but it's better to be early to the party than late. Might take a strong stomach depending on the timing but the case for Natural Gas is certainly there. The Natural Gas play that we're sitting on top of produces more Natural Gas on a daily basis than the Gulf of Mexico. I read that the other day.

The price for CNG I posted above .... CNG was about half that much at 87 cents ppge up in OK around the same time. That's cheap fuel.

[Kansas]

I am surprised railroads aren't switching to natural gas. I know they dabbled in it years ago. With the price difference between that and diesel, and their infrastructure, seems like it would be natural to switch over.

One thing I do wonder about though. If in 5 years a lot of over the road trucks are switched along with local route trucks, will the price go up to negate the advantage? Too many variables, not knowing what diesel would be priced at in 5 years. I also don't hear much anymore about that natural gas pipeline from Alaska. They got tremendous reserves up there.

[doctorb]

I am pretty ignorant about this stuff.  Thank for the posts and the links.

How do thin-walled propane tanks hold up in vehicular accidents?  For all the fake explosions we see in car crashes on TV, we don't have too many explosions with gas powered vehicles in real life. (Remember the Pinto!)

[LOGDOG]

Yep, railroads have my interest as well. I think it's just a matter of time. Railroads are already a very efficient way to move a lot of freight even using today's diesel engines.

And you're right, with increased demand price will go up on NG. But right now 1 MCF or 1000 cubic feet of NG is the equivalent of almost 8 gallons of diesel. (I think that's what T.Boone said a few weeks back.) So 1 MCF of NG right now costs $4.39+/- and 8 gallons of diesel would cost me $30.00 at $3.75. So $4.39 vs. $30.00 .... there's a ton of room for inflation in NG. The par value of NG to Diesel currently is $35.12/MCF minus the appropriate road tax for your state. Lots of room to run.  

But let's say that it was a break even. Par. At least we'd be spending those dollars in America and creating U.S. jobs vs. buying that much more foreign oil and sending our money overseas. That gets us nothing.

I've had the explosion question in my mind as well. I haven't seen a ton of talk about it. I do believe the flash point of NG is substantially higher than unleaded though. I want to say NG is like 1200 degrees and Unleaded maybe 600 for a flash point. I'd have to double check.

[red]

thats what it is about keeping fuel dollars in the usa not overseas not perfect but another option

[submarinesailor]

I've had the explosion question in my mind as well. I haven't seen a ton of talk about it. I do believe the flash point of NG is substantially higher than unleaded though. I want to say NG is like 1200 degrees and Unleaded maybe 600 for a flash point. I'd have to double check.

I did not know what the CORRECT/FORMAL definition of Flash Point was, so I Wikipedi it and here is what they say:  The flash point of a volatile liquid is the lowest temperature at which it can vaporize to form an ignitable mixture in air. Measuring a liquid's flash point requires an ignition source. At the flash point, the vapor may cease to burn when the source of ignition is removed.
The flash point is not to be confused with the autoignition temperature, which does not require an ignition source.
The fire point, a higher temperature, is defined as the temperature at which the vapor continues to burn after being ignited. Neither the flash point nor the fire point is related to the temperature of the ignition source or of the burning liquid, which are much higher.
Wiki has the flash point of gasoline as -43 C (-45 F) and the autoignition temperature as 246 C (495 F). The flash point of natural gas is -188 C (-306 F).  It becomes explosive between 5-15%.

I had an idea of them, but I like the fact that they seperated the 3 different type of points: Flash, autoignition and fire point.

BTW - the official number of gallons of diesel fuel per mmBTU (approximately equal to an MCF) is 7.19 gallons (138,960 BTUs per gal)

Bruce

[LOGDOG]

Good stuff Bruce. You left out the autoignition temp on NG though. Do you have that off hand?

I like that they break it down into the three categories as well. It's a more specific way of addressing potential scenarios.

My neighbor works for Centerpoint Energy  and has for the last 30 years. We were discussing some of this the other day. He's actually done quite a few conversions with success.

Even at 7.41 to 1 it looks good next to Diesel. Adjust the above numbers by 6/10 of a percent.  ;)

[LOGDOG]

http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/fuels-ignition-temperatures-d_171.html

Looks like autoignition temp on NG/Methane is 1076 F .

[Al_Smith]

Couple of things on this .Maybe 20 some years ago there was push to convert service type vehicles to propane .Supposed to be cheaper but as so stated they didn't have the power as with gasoline .

While at one time farm tractors used in the southern part of the US were propane burners but it didn't work so well in the north .During cold weather the regulaters would malfunction .

Now they may have remedied that situation but so far you don't see many propane equipted service trucks in this area  because of the problems of the past . What you do see is propane fork trucks and like vehicles that are used for in plant industrial usage .Almost nothing is use on the outside .

Now Pickens and his gas evidently failed to mention that the natural gas consortium also has had so called "shortages " in the past .Weather the were man made or true noone is fessing up to . Kinda like OPEC with different players in my opinion .

[LOGDOG]

Al ... when were the shortages? Prior to 2008 I'm guessing when every Natural Gas Shale play in the world came out of the woodworks? We've got hundreds of years worth with just what we have in the USA.

I also wanted to mention that there are NG reserves that are currently not being tapped because they're not economical to drill. They require NG to be at maybe $7-$10/mcf. So as the price goes up more supply will come on line because it will make sense then. 

[submarinesailor]

I also wanted to mention that there are NG reserves that are currently not being tapped because they're not economical to drill. They require NG to be at maybe $7-$10/mcf. So as the price goes up more supply will come on line because it will make sense then. 

I just reading a piece yesterday that stated there is about 450 TCF of recoverable gas that this time.  But if prices were to increase to about $8.00/MCF the number goes to about 705 TCF.  And As I have said before, all these numbers do not include the methane hydrates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate) located all over the place.

BTW - Your comment about your neighbor working for CenterPoint Energy, reminded me I needed to call one of my POCs that CenterPoint Enrgy.  Thanks for the reminder. :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

[Ianab]

How do thin-walled propane tanks hold up in vehicular accidents?  For all the fake explosions we see in car crashes on TV, we don't have too many explosions with gas powered vehicles in real life. (Remember the Pinto!)

The "thin walled" tanks are still 10X stronger than a petrol tank.

Locally some have been in accidents and caught fire. The tanks have "burst disks" that vent the gas if the tank starts cooking, and so only feeds a relatively normal sort of fire. No worse than a leaking petrol tank really.

Yes there is a fire risk, but a normal car is carrying around a similar amount of potentially explosive fuel.

Ian

[Al_Smith]

Al ... when were the shortages? Prior to 2008 I'm guessing when every Natural Gas Shale play in the world came out of the woodworks? We've got hundreds of years worth with just what we have in the USA.

Judging by the age you listed you were just a little fellow in say 1978 .Supposidely gas was in short supply .The powers to be suggested every one turn their home heating to 65 degrees during the day .That was also about the time when woodburners enjoyed somewhat of a rebirth for want of a better word .

Companys came out of the woodwork,Buck Stove ,Earth stove and a hundred others .

Now in say 1987-88 or so after the price was deregulated and the cost per MCF jumped at least 5 fold they all of the sudden had all kinds of gas .Funny how that worked .There seems to be a connection ,doesn't there .

You know the little first home I had in 1971 could be heated for 15 bucks a month .I'd say it would take about 225 now in January . It's doubtfull it uses any more gas though .

[LOGDOG]

Glad I could help out with the reminder Submarinesailor. 

Yep Al, I would have been 3 years old. Now I know why my dad kept the thermostat on 65 up in WI in the winter and we burned wood primarily. Used to hate splitting that wood every night after school and wheeling 2-3 wheelbarrow loads in every night. I was skinny so it was a real push for me. I remember my little brother used to hold the wedge and I'd swing. I had the better end of the deal let me tell ya'!  :D I wasn't a real good shot with a splitting mall back then. ....My poor little brother. Wow, that brings back memories.

[Mooseherder]

I hope all or most of the current energy suppliers get locked out and shut out of any new streams of energy.
That would create some competition for your energy dollar.  If the current players harvest the next line of solutions there won't be any relief.  This is probably most unlikely to happen. :

[LOGDOG]

Yep, too late. In fact, were it not for them driving advancements in those fields and investing in infrastructure it wouldn't be happening any other way right now.