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Well alright boys..what do you want to bid? [standing timber]

Started by chain, July 22, 2010, 01:41:07 PM

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chain

Thought it would be interesting to present this bid prospectus that was presented to timber buyers in January of '09 in the SE ozarks of Missouri.
Timber description:

Timber quality is above average. Products include grade lumber, ties, palletwood, and stave logs. Comprised of 66% red oak, 17% white oak, 13% post oak, and 3% hickory, .8% other. Sawtimber volume estimated at 237.8 MBF [int. 1/4 inch scale]

70% of sawtimber volume in trees 16" DBH or larger. Ro-829 trees 157,000bf, Wo-248 trees 39,000 bf, Po-362 trees 31,700 bf, hickory 78 trees 7,800bf, other 16 trees 2,000 bf.

Several sawmills in vicinity 30 mile radius, stave mill, and grade buyers available, will bid on your logs and haul to their mill. To add a little spice, you may figure you are allowed to set up your portable mill and have at it [12mos.]

Lump sum bid..remember, do you figuring as if you were really interested in buying this timber! this is for fun..but setting bid in at $25,000.00

Well..ALL right! whatryagonna bid, boys?

[I'll let you know what the true minmum bid was later, but do not know final winning amount.]

chucker

?? OK ?? ...... $25.001.00  FOR THE FIRST. and by all reallity down that to $17,850.00... as theres good with bad and all averages at fair for a poor market?? so someone bid up ?? whatya bid?????
respect nature ! and she will produce for you !!  jonsered 625 670  2159 2171/28"  efco 147 husky 390xp/28" .375... 455r/auto tune 18" .58 gauge

SwampDonkey

Running on what I have experience with our local woods, I'd say $25,000 is about all anyone would offer for that volume and composition. A lot of unknowns, the biggie is what's inside the bark of them trees. ;) Is this a selection harvest, a clearcut or a gut'n high grade?
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Ron Wenrich

No veneer?  If its above average quality, there should be a good mix of veneer in with the sawlogs.  What is Po?  Tulip poplar or aspen?

I would like to see a tree distribution...the number of trees in each dbh class per species.  I would also like to see the footage in Doyle, since most guys buy on the Doyle scale.  A volume distribution by size class would also be handy as would be an avg dbh size per species.

That sale would have fetched $25K in PA about 35 years ago.  Today it would be triple that, and you still might not get it.  But, your quality and ours might be a lot different.

The other thing is how tight is the scale.  Some cruisers have a tendency to overstate the amount of wood.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

Autocar

I am not sure what the quality is in your area but if it is anything like Ohio's 1533 trees for $25,000 figures out at sixteen dollars a tree . Here you wouldn't even buy the saw dust from around the stump. Heres my feelings 1533 trees at $71.32  comes to $109,349.00 And to be honest if they were here I don't think you would buy them for that. Some companys here are paying five hundred dollars a tree [ 500 bd. ft. plus ] The red averages 189 bd. ft. and the white 157 so the footage is pretty good that will drive the price close to one hundred dollars a tree. Just my two cents  ;D
Bill

SwampDonkey

"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

SwampDonkey

Autocar, low volumes of good hardwood logs and no one in my region buys hardwood logs standing. They all figure on pulpwood volumes. A 50 acre woodlot can run 1200-1500 cords and top price was around $1000/acre and it's way less now and that was guys with cash flow troubles. There's so much low quality out there that the price is also low. Softwood has way less defect up here, assuming your not in poor ground with a lot of stunted fir.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Autocar

I can never figure out the way they sell by the ton,once in a while around here your pay eight dollars a ton for firewood poles then resell it for fifteen dollars but I never made any money doing that. Even around here twenty miles can be the difference of got timber and just timber. 
Bill

SwampDonkey

We get $38-50 a ton, sometimes $56, average 40 ton a load. Aspen is usually worth more than hardwood actually. The mills also use trucking zones as well based on distance. Finished pulp is $1000 a metric tonne right now.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

IMOWOOD

With no veneer ill go with 11,891 bucks and not a penny more.  What is the road situation like on the job(dozer needed)?, and is there a top lop, streams to be poled or bridged, average skid length, small/large landing area, steep/flat. . . .. all matter alot if ya plan on makin money knock a grand off the price for each variable.

Jamie_C

Around here buying standing hardwood "logs" is unheard of on a lump sum basis, way too many risks for hidden defects & rot. With all the risks and unknowns i wouldn't pay any more than $10,000 and would be nervous even paying that.

The current block we are cutting most of the birch (80 - 90 %) is rotten (hollow) and probably 20% of the rock maple is rotten as well. From the "outside" most of them look quite healthy, once the saw starts into them different story.

Local prices for hardwood logs vary between $200 - $500/mbf roadside depending on species and grade.

chain

I regret some of you missed the timber showing ;D  but this is tall timber fellas, a very reputable consulting forester cruised this timber, yes this is a selected cut, all trees to be harvested marked with orange paint. All trees are NOT required to be cut. Sale area is well drained. Timber to market roads very good.Are you discounting your portable mills?

I would be checking tie-log market as this has been one of the mainstays for loggers the last couple of years. Highs for white oak logs in this area ran about $250.00 mbf other mixed oak sawlogs a depressing $90.00 mbf. I'm guessing but thought tie logs around $300.00mbf Some special oak logs were sold for matting timbers, $300.00 mbfor so, 14"small end 16' lenghts. Best thing is relate to the log markets in your area....remember..this is for fun!








Ron Wenrich

Have you looked at the timber?  Local buyer has a theory that the veneer should pay for the timber.  No veneer would put a significant drag on the timber.  Oak veneer in the $1250-1500 range.  Hickory veneer is probably $1000.

Looking at a price list of a large mill in NY has red oak in a range from $100-$800, white oak $100-$450, hickory at $250 log run.  Doyle log scale. 

They don't have a tie price listed, as they have a flooring plant and cut everything up.  I've heard ties in my area at $200. 
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

Gary_C

Here is another sale on county land that was just sold in NW Wisconsin this month. This sale was listed on an sealed bid auction just six months ago and got no bids. It was relisted for the July sale and seven bidders submitted bids. These are scaled sales and you are required to bid by item so your final cost will depend on how it cuts out. And the highest total dollar bidder gets the bid, they do not pick and choose individual bids.

The sale acres is 75 acres select cut and 16 acres clear cut (except oak over 15" dbh) for a total of 91 acres.

An important thing to note that has become standard on these sales is on hardwood sawlogs you pay for the logs by MBF and then pay for the tops by the cord.

Red Oak          100 MBF   Appr  $278/ T $27,800   Bid $438/ T $43,800

Mx Hdwd         36 MBF    Appr $140/ T $5040   Bid $200/  T $7,200
  contains 4 MBF WO, 18 MBF Bass, 3 MBF Sugar Maple, 11 MBF other

Mx Hdwd Pulp    300 cords  Appr $25.7/ T $7,710   Bid $29/  T $8,700

Oak Pulp           240 cords   Appr $18.4 T $4,416   Bid $22.5/  T $5,400

Aspen Pulp        650 cords   Appr $25.5/ T $16,575  Bid $26.5  T $17,225

So the total appraised value was $61,541 and the total bid was for $82,325.

The sawlogs were appraised at $32,840 and sold for $51,100.

The pulp wood was appraised for $28,701 and sold for $31,325.

I did not look at this sale as it was a ways out of my way, but I did look at some jack pine sales in another part of the county that were on sandy soils and the oak I saw there was short and not so great. But this sale must have been on better soils.

Five of the seven bidders were big mills or brokers. Of the two loggers that bid, one is a very large operator who lives in the county that actually bid under the minimum so his bid would probably have been disqualified. The high bidder is a large sawmill operation that just hires loggers to cut for them.

What would you bid on this sale?  :)
Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.

chain

We can surely see there are tremendous variables in timber buying across the country. Probably far better timber both in Ohio and Wisconsin, as in say, the common Missouri Ozark hills. Folks burned the woods off nearly each year up until the 1940s. Some of our older timber shows the old fire-scars especially up near the crown of the ridges. Nevertheless, there is some very good grade and veneer white and red oak scattered about. Here is where an experienced eye for quality timber is needed.

This timber did sell, some of you will be surprised what the minimum bid opened was.

chain

The minimum opening bid was $35,670.00, winning bid unknown. Most foresters here reccommend lump sum contracts. If your logger likes to  work timber up  and get every cord or BF available, and a high percentage is below grade, selling by percentage MBF is a fair system for all..I think. However, in good grade timber, a "'bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

IMOWOOD

WOW. . . .must have needed to see this wood to know how to bid

CX3

This sounds familiar.  I am in SW Missouri and bid on a patch just like the one described.  I bid around 25K and thought oh no if I get that I am going broke, and the winning bid was upwards of 60K. 
John 3:16
You Better Believe It!

Autocar

CX3 you made my day  :D every time I buy a job I lay in bed thinking man alive I paid blank blank to much for it  :D Then if I don't buy it I kick myself that I should of paid a few bucks more.  ;D
Bill

CX3

When I bid or look at a patch of timber, I try to envision a real price for the wood.  I have no idea how people can give as much as they do for the stuff.  It worries me to death just to imagine giving such a price for some jobs. 
John 3:16
You Better Believe It!

jrdwyer

Chain, having worked one summer in the heart of the Missouri Ozarks, site quality and history are so variable from place to place. The average tree sizes for this sale for red oak (189 b.f./tree) and white oak (157) are only average, but quality could be better than typical if grown/managed properly with proper spacing over time. Hard to say what the bids would be without looking at the white oak stave/veneer component, but .18-.30/b.f. should cover it.

Gary_C, interesting that you posted about a sale in NW Wisconsin. We recently spent several days camping up near Drummond (Two Lakes Campground) and the Forest Service completed (not that long ago) a selective harvest in the campground area that had some blow down from a storm. This area is predominantly northern red oak and very good quality, albeit slow growth rates judging by the stumps I looked at. The wood I saw (firewood, stumps) appeared nicely uniform, tight grained, and straw colored, just what the buyers like in red oak. Given that, the price of .43/b.f. listed for the recent sale doesn't surprise me. I am surprised that the aspen pulp price isn't higher. I don't know the specifics of the aspen sizes, but the I was under the impression that aspen bolts sold to the likes of LP (OSB and siding) and Diamond Match were the reason for sky high aspen small diameter/non sawtimber prices up north. Maybe this sale didn't have an aspen bolt component?

Jamie_C, I'm not sure about the specifics of how timber you buy is measured, but I make it a common practice of sounding each and every sawtimber/veneer tree I mark and sell for my landowner clients. It only takes a few seconds and it is at least 90% reliable (when combined with visual clues) for determining basal defects in hardwoods. Basal defects are deducted and indicated by a horizontal paint line where the defect stops with a dot above it. One logger who cut a tract I sold specifically asked me how I knew where all the defects were in otherwise healthy looking trees. All it takes is experience and practice to learn this very useful skill. Even for timber cruises, sounding trees can be very important for accurately estimating timber volumes. I have done cruises in older bottomland stands that had up to 20% reductions in volume for basal defect due to flooding and/or past human activities (cattle/fire/bad skidding).

SwampDonkey

Of all the highway I traveled the last few days I see the most loads of wood moving through New Brunswick. I even saw a load of yellow birch Veneer heading to Quebec, I assume Arbotec or some such place. I saw a Columbia Mill on the way to the Sault (I think near Blind River), which is Veneer, but no wood being moved anywhere in the area.

By the way, I did see some pretty big willow along the river at Blind River and a spot or two along the lower St Laurence near Rivier De Loupe, Quebec. Some seemed to be dying at the top on the more westward end of my journey. Dry sandy soils out that way.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

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