Times are getting worse every day

peter nap · February 11, 2009, 10:24:05 PM

I just had a fellow offer to sell me 65 acres of mature pine, appraised at 80,000.00, for 35,000.00.

The problem is, no one wants the pine now and he needs money now or lose the land. I may do it at 20,000.00 and I hate to feel like I took advantage of him, but like I told him. It;s still risky. I'm afraid this country is headed for a crash the likes of which we have never seen.

campy · February 11, 2009, 10:32:24 PM

Food, shelter and water are the requirements for survival.

The money means nothing.

With our sawmills and our logs we can make shelter.

Maybe with your new pine logs you will help keep a family out of the wind and rain?

fishpharmer · February 12, 2009, 01:28:41 AM

I am not sure if one localized incident of a real estate firesale should cause panic. Times are tough. I am not old enough but my MIL grew during the great depression. She has seen it bad.

If he will take 20 and you back out please pm me the guys number.

peter nap · February 12, 2009, 02:10:53 AM

Quote from: fishpharmer on February 12, 2009, 01:28:41 AM
I am not sure if one localized incident of a real estate firesale should cause panic. Times are tough. I am not old enough but my MIL grew during the great depression. She has seen it bad.

If he will take 20 and you back out please pm me the guys number.

I'd agree if it was one incident. I passed on a small farm around 70 acres last week. The fellow kept coming down and even offered to take part of the note. I bought a dozen windows from a contractor two weeks ago for 200.00. When I picked them up he tried to sell me his tools and riding mower. Turned out he was on the verge of foreclosure on his house.

I didn't see a foreclosure once every 6 months near me 2 years ago. Now I see 2 or 3 a week. Lots of things going on now.

fishpharmer · February 12, 2009, 08:21:18 AM

I apologize for judging your particular location. I am not seeing that in my area. Although I know there has been job losses. I did not realize it was happening on such a large scale in your area.

I guess this begs the question.....How do you see a foreclosure? Unless someone tells you. Or one of those big nasty "Foreclosure Sale" signs pops up.

So quit honestly it could be happening more than I realize. Doesn't seem so in my circle of influence.

D Martin · February 12, 2009, 08:24:50 AM

Well, things hopefully will get better soon with the passing of the stimulus plan. They sure can get worse though. I was in my early 20's during the last recession (89 -92) and things turned out ok. The work slow/stoppage then meant you had to be a chamelion to survive. I had at least a year during that recession of very little work but now in my 40's with many more Iorns in the fire, a year of very little work would be devastating. I am re financing my house from whts left on a 15 yr back to a 30 yr mortgage to lessen the load in case things go sour. Alot of people are,(I am told) doing the same, so much so that re fi's are taking some banks 60 days to close on, including mine.
So let us hope that things go as planned with this plan. In the long run we will all survive just maybe with less stuff.
For the construction people out there, so far as I understand, bridge and road re construction and repair, infrastructure and industrial construction jobs such as power stations etc..are going to be the place to be in the near future. So If you are a chamelion and you have been in the residential or commercial/ private sector, it may be time to change colors a little bit. It tends to be a little bit harder on a body, is definately more dangerous safety and healthwise but tends to pay better and is less in direct customer relations wich is far less stressfull if you are in a position that you have to deal with such things.
If this is the case I would think demand for lumber may still be in decline as most structures like these use steel but as I have seen in other posts, pallets were still doing ok and a guy here in town who owns a pallet mill seems to be doing well.
Good luck to all and keep your chins up
Dave

SwampDonkey · February 12, 2009, 08:33:15 AM

I wonder what the margins on pallets are. Seems to me it's a work for nothing job. The big food processor gets pallets for $4 each. You have to have free wood, minimum wages and work fast. Combined, those three conditions would be impossible to meet around here, so I have no idea where new pallets are coming from. I know a guy that picks up free ones from small businesses that are tossing them away and the processor only pays $4.

Banjo picker · February 12, 2009, 08:55:23 AM

Quote from: SwampDonkey on February 12, 2009, 08:33:15 AM
I wonder what the margins on pallets are. Seems to me it's a work for nothing job. The big food processor gets pallets for $4 each. You have to have free wood, minimum wages and work fast. Combined, those three conditions would be impossible to meet around here, so I have no idea where new pallets are coming from. I know a guy that picks up free ones from small businesses that are tossing them away and the processor only pays $4.

I have no idea as to what a new pallet goes for. I do know what the pallet mill about 3 miles from my mill offered me for pallet cants. $290 mbf. So the free wood is part of his equation, only wants to pay for sawing. They won't but one inch material only cants. I don't know what they pay, but I don't plan on applying :D They make a lot of pallets and have been there a long time. By the way I haven't sold him any cants either. ;D Tim

SwampDonkey · February 12, 2009, 09:07:32 AM

Seems to me dad had to pay $12-15 back 10 years ago. Trucks would come for potatoes and the pallets would be painted blue, they said pile theirs to one side as they were not leaving them. So they would basically steal ours and leave nothing. Except sometimes they would send a truck with busted up junk and take our new ones. I've got no idea who they gave the pallets to, I'm sure they didn't just haul empty pallets around all the time. As I say, it was a way to steal new ones, plain and simple. Then dad had to go buy new pallets to replace their garbage pallets.

D Martin · February 12, 2009, 09:44:22 AM

I was responding only to what I have read and heard . I do not make a living from wood (unfortunately because I love it as a hobby). My point was more-so adapting in these tough times. Thhere has to be a market that will flourish if the construction markets change from commercial/residential to Bridge , industrial, infrastructure etc. Steel is the primary material used in such projects but not the only. Maybe sureing lumber as it is used alot in bridge repair I dont know. If I were in the position that I needed to know I might contact some bridge construction companys and see what might be needed when some of the govt moneys get awarded to bridge reconstruction etc.. Just a thought. I am sure pellet stoves have stolen alot of fire wood buisness. Times are a changing and we need to change with it to survive.
Dave

idahohay · February 12, 2009, 10:29:19 AM

We will "change with it to survive". We are finally seeing the results of a global economy. My fear is that wages will average out throughout the global economy so plan on making about 2.00 per hour. Obama's plan: tax and spend to bail us out of years of taxing and spending.

Jim_Wahl · February 12, 2009, 10:39:57 AM

I think those blue pallets are the property of a company call CHEP which has been sued,
maybe several times over the last few years over their business practices.

D Martin · February 12, 2009, 11:06:09 AM

Long term our children will probably suffer for our mistakes. Short term we need to feed them, house them and educate them how to fix what we fix we left them in. :P

Polly · February 12, 2009, 11:12:51 AM

i think chep pallets is part of goodwill they used to use handycaped people to rebuild them they have a warehouse in cincy and one in louisville i think the main location is somewhere around columbis they rent them to local factories for use and they collect them to rebuild again when they started they were in woodlawn at a goodwill store the pallets are blue and chep is stenciled on the side of them this was how they used to operate as of now they might be using illegials or shipping from china for all i know

D Martin · February 12, 2009, 11:34:52 AM

I see alot of plastic pallets these days, now that I think of it.

Tom · February 12, 2009, 12:55:29 PM

Yes, they are becoming popular. They come from the Global Warmingus(carbon sequestrationata plasticus) tree. One day, when carbon becomes popular again, the bandwagon will be one where the landfills will be mined and there will be those CHEP pallets, full of carbon. ;D

peter nap · February 12, 2009, 01:43:49 PM

Quote from: fishpharmer on February 12, 2009, 08:21:18 AM
I apologize for judging your particular location. I am not seeing that in my area. Although I know there has been job losses. I did not realize it was happening on such a large scale in your area.

I guess this begs the question.....How do you see a foreclosure? Unless someone tells you. Or one of those big nasty "Foreclosure Sale" signs pops up.

So quit honestly it could be happening more than I realize. Doesn't seem so in my circle of influence.

No need to apologize. I'm talking about foreclosure auctions. They are required to post them in the paper. My brother is a lawyer and had never had to conduct an auction until this year. His clients are are keeping him busy.

I expect I'm a good bit older than you and have been through this before. This one is worse though. I've never seen the economic climate like this and my 0.02 worth, Obama writing bad checks to jump start the economy, won't work!

Since nothing like this has ever happened before (Not even the great depression, they didn't have the kind of debt the average person has now) no one really knows what will come. We have been doing "Muddle through" economics for years and it's turned around and bitten us on the backside. On top of that, people that paid a quarter million for their house three years ago, now find it's onlt worth a hundred fifty thousand ...if they can find someone to buy it. Many have lost their jobs and have to sell, but can't break even. The Bankruptcy court here is backlogged.

My guess is we are about half way to the bottom and recovery after it bottoms out, will take ten years. Hope I'm wrong but I'm OUT of the stock market for now and pinching pennies just in case.

Norm · February 12, 2009, 02:10:25 PM

That's a very well thought out synopsis Peter.

The only time in my life that I've seen times this tough is during the 70's. I truly believe that if the government agencies such as the Fed, treasury and congress had just said yep this is bad and we'll just have to tough it out we would have been worse short term but much better off in the long run.

What happens next I can only guess. That guess we'll see a short bump up for a couple of years and then times will be much worse than I've ever experienced.

CLL · February 12, 2009, 03:16:21 PM

I think all the stimulus package will do in the long run is bail out the big banks and the rich on wall street. I think wall street and the speculators drove the market to stupid highs and now we are paying for it.

MaddiesDad · February 12, 2009, 05:06:45 PM

Thankfully our end of the business hasn't seen the slow down yet. I'm not sure why, but we haven't yet. A LOT are taking this time to shut down, make changes, make upgrades, etc because they can afford to be shut down. When times are good, they don't want to shut down, etc. I do hope the Obama plan works, I've got my downs, but I'm hopeful that with all the construction projects going on, that'll help with the wood products, etc. That should help carry the industry for a while untill the home market picks up.

Larry · February 12, 2009, 05:58:55 PM

You may not like there business model, or there way of doing business but one of the smarter companies out there is Walmart. There making money in a tough economy. They just laid off 800 highly skilled from corporate headquarters. Some of these were folks that purchased real estate for new stores and designed new stores. Not people you would let go iffen the economy is going to turn around in 6 months to a year. Me thinks they see a down economy that may take a few years to recover. I don't know if it raised a blip on the national news as overall they are adding employees when new stores open.

Haytrader · February 12, 2009, 06:37:58 PM

And I'll bet they don't need bail out $$.

This strategy (or is it?) of a stimulas is kind of like a tax man telling you that you made too much money and need to buy a new tractor even though you have to borrow the money to do it.

WildDog · February 13, 2009, 04:40:12 PM

Our economy is getting grim down here, the new Fed Govt is about to release the 2nd stimulus package $42 billion and there's talk of borrowing a further $200 bill, it has me concerned for my kids. Housing affordability is so out of reach for the average hard working Joe Blow they have raised the 1st home buyers grant to $25000.

My wife and I consider ourselves very fortunate with Govt jobs, neither are high payiing but its a regular pay cheque.

I can see suttle changes like the local small engines service used to have a yard full of new ride on mowers for sale but yesterday there was only 1. Same for the local agricultural motor bike dealer used to have 10 or so quads now down to 1 and he's lost the Yamaha and some other brand license cause he couldn't move enough stock. I bought my wife a second hand 4wd $14500 so we could give her old ford to my 17yr son for helping on the farm. We bought it last week privately and normally I would try and drive the seller down as far as possible but the price was reasonable we had the money and needed to buy and I know she really needed to sell, we didn't have the stomach to bargain her down, but next time when things improve look out

My son worked for 3 different building firms for work experience over the last couple of months and this week was offered an electrical apprentice ship locally and school based, so for his final 2 school yrs he studies does on the job training and goes into the firm with 1st and possibly 2nd year of the trade already completed, we are so proud of him and thankfull to his employer and school especially in this climate.

Polly · February 13, 2009, 10:13:54 PM

i just read inthe local paper where high school kids were spending a hundred dollars or more to buy their girl friends roses for vallentines day i dont know what to think of their parents ??? ???

MaddiesDad · February 14, 2009, 07:54:15 AM

Who cares if they are? IF it's thier money. If my son (a whopping 4 months old :D ) used HIS money from allowance, jobs, whatever to buy his girlfriend flowers. It's getting money into the economy, etc.