Warm Winter Predicted For United States

[submarinesailor]

Yesterday, the official weather quester's for the US Government released their latest questiment for this winter.  Here is what they had to say.

Bruce


NOAA forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of the Southwest and Southeast in its winter outlook for the United States, announced at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, D.C October 9, 2007.

"La Niña is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through the winter," said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "The big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched South. And while December through February is likely to be another milder-than-average winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of winter weather."  For the 2007-2008 U.S. winter, from December through February, NOAA seasonal forecasters predict:
1.  In the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures are expected to be above average in response to the long-term warming trend. Snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one-to-two weeks in advance.
2.  The drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain drier-than-average due to La Niña, while temperatures are expected to be above average.
3.  In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should be above average.
4.  The south-central Plains should see drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures. Above-average temperatures are also expected in the central Plains. The northern Plains has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperature and precipitation.
5.  In the Northwest, there are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Precipitation should be above average in much of the region due to La Niña.
6.  Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest due to La Niña, and temperatures are likely to be above average.
7.  Northern Alaska is expect to be milder–than-average, while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation. In Hawaii, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be above average.

This winter is predicted to be warmer than the 30-year norm. For the country as a whole, NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December through February projects a 2.8 percent warmer winter than the 30-year normal, but a 1.3 percent cooler winter than last year.

[ely]

that is sort of strange news to me. where i live you can scoop acorns up in a shovel and the persimmons have the limbs sagging near to the breaking point. in the past this usually means it will be a long tough winter. it will be interesting to see the outcome.

[OneWithWood]

Looks like a winter of mud.  Sure wish I had gotten in the firewood before it started raining  :(

[Radar67]

Been kind of wet around here to. So much so that I can't get my crossing dried up enough to get my culverts in.

[sawguy21]

Very wet here too. The forecast I heard was colder and wetter than usual due to El Nina. This weather forecasting is a real cr$p shoot. :D

[pigman]

3.  In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should be above average.

I sure wish they had made that forcast sooner. ;D  Since yesterday we have received more than four inches of rain. 8) That is three inches more that we have received since May of this year. Beter late than never. ;)

[Warbird]

7.  ...while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation.

Uhhhh...  why don't they just say, "We have absolutely no idea what the rest of Alaska will be up to!"  ??  :D :D

[BBK]

7.  ...while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation.

Uhhhh...  why don't they just say, "We have absolutely no idea what the rest of Alaska will be up to!"  ??  :D :D

I don't know which is worse legalspeak or weatherspeak  ;)

[mike_van]

I gotta agree with Ely on the nuts & stuff - Here in New England too, so many hickory nuts, crabapples, walnuts [some of my branches snapped off] Around here, all that usually means long cold winter. I'll let you know in April -  :D     Hey, I wonder if the guy that did the hurricane forecast for the last two seasons is now doing winter too?  Better start cutting wood then.............. a lot of it!

[Roxie]

This is what the Farmer's Almanac predicts:

"The 2008 Farmers' Almanac long-range forecasts are calling for colder than normal conditions for the eastern half of the country – chiefly those areas east of the Mississippi –with snowier than normal conditions expected.

For the western half of the country - mainly those areas west of the Mississippi – the overall winter will be milder than normal, with near or below normal precipitation. Quite a change from last year, when cold and stormy weather came blasting."

Won't it be fun to see who was right....the NOAA or the Farmer's Almanac?

[Radar67]

I'll put my money on the Almanac. ;D

[flip]

All I can say is good.  I hate the cold. >:(

[dave7191]

 Radar that was just what I was thinking my money is on the almanac 

[RaisedByWolves]

I'll put my money on the Almanac. ;D

Not me, nosir....IVE GOT Weather Rock!!!


Go ahead and ask me about it, Im thinking about starting a chain of "Weather Rock" stores. I can get them from the local Indian tribe through barter and they will show you the weather accuratly without fail.


.

[TexasTimbers]

Not me, nosir....IVE GOT Weather Rock!!!
Go ahead and ask me about it, Im thinking about starting a chain of "Weather Rock" stores. I can get them from the local Indian tribe through barter and they will show you the weather accuratly without fail.

Okay then I'm asking.

[submarinesailor]

Now it's time for the commercial weather guesser to get into the picture.  Here what AccuWeather.com has to say about this winter: The AccuWeather.com team is calling for a cooler than normal beginning and end to this winter, wrapped around three months of higher temperatures that could make it a warmer season than last year and one of the 10 warmest winters ever for the southeastern United States.

Now with both NOAA and these guys calling for a warmer winter, maybe the price for natural gas and burner oil will drop some more.  The price for November gas on the futures market has dropped almost $4.00 since the middle of August.  It's down to about $6.75 per million BTUs.

Bruce

[DanG]

I don't know what the winter weather will be like, but it is a whole bunch cooler today than it was yesterday.  I gotta scratch around and find them 3 brickbats so I can set the Dodge wheel up in front of the shop.  That little fire is gonna feel good! ;D

[Radar67]

DanG, them brickbats may have floated off last week, or got buried up in the mud.  :D

[DanG]

Nahh.  I seen'um yesterday, kinda half buried in the leaves under that huckleberry bush by the shop.  Now the wheel is another story.  I ain't real sure where I tossed it last Spring.  It's gotta be close by somewhere though.  I'm too lazy to have toted it very far. :

[SwampDonkey]

This October was the exact same as September. Warm and not very wet at all. Maybe 1/2 to 1-1/2 inches of rain a week. Never had a freeze the ground frost yet, no frozen puddles in the mornings. Not too slick driving around the edge of fields either.

[thedeeredude]

I know exactly what the weather rock is. :D  We have one at work on the desk.  Do a google for weather rock.

[SwampDonkey]

We have weather rock up north here also. When water freezes in the river (that's the rock), it indicates it's dang cold and a chance of snow in the air for every day it stays froze.  :D :D :D

[Woodbender]

Funny - these are the guys who can't get next week's weather right.  That's the problem with computer models - garbage in , garbage out.

I'll take acorns and wildlife observations any day.  And there's BOATloads of acorns here in West Michigan.

[getoverit]

Did Al Gore write this forcast?

[Ron Wenrich]

I always thought that the fruit yield had more to do with how the spring was then how the winter is going to be.  Better weather in the spring means more flower germination....

But, I haven't seen any wooly bears this fall.  Maybe I've overlooked them, but, I don't recall seeing any.  Usually you see a few crossing the road or under the wood pile.  But, this year, nothing.   ???

[submarinesailor]

I have bunches of them down here.  They are big and very wooly.  But, we appear to be dying early.  Wonder why???

Bruce

[Roxie]

Did Al Gore write this forcast?

No, he just invented it. 

[KarenKae]

Funny - these are the guys who can't get next week's weather right.  That's the problem with computer models - garbage in , garbage out.

I'll take acorns and wildlife observations any day.  And there's BOATloads of acorns here in West Michigan.

I agree. Even with the freeze that killed 1/2 the acorn crop.. I still have bunches pinging my roof so there maybe some really cold weather coming.  On the other hand, my outside cats aren't very furry yet.  I will be checking them pretty often now so I can arrange for them to get in out of bad weather if need be.  Usually, their ears get very thickly furred if the winter will be long and colder, so what do you think? Some colder but not very long winter?  hummm

[beenthere]

Tell ya later.....about mid April '08 ;D ;D

[mike_van]

This thread reminds me of an old country song by Sheb Wooley - His version of Almost Persuaded -  He says "permit me to introduce myself, Ben Colder here"  and she says "Ain't been no colder here than it has anyplace else"  :D  Anyone remember it?

[TexasTimbers]

I don't remember the song but we have one of those "consumer advocate" types down there in the DFW area and his name is Ben Dover. It was freaky years ago when I stumbled across his radio program and heard him say when he came back from a commercial break "Welcome back to the bend over show where we teach you to stick it to the IRS."
I nearly had a wreck! Can you picture the imagery that flashed through my mind? Bend over. IRS.
His website is even bendover.com :D

[fencerowphil (Phil L.)]

I guess my sawing helper's idea of venturing into the firewood area may have to wait for a colder year, huh?

[KarenKae]

I guess my sawing helper's idea of venturing into the firewood area may have to wait for a colder year, huh?

Naww Fencerow, tell him to jump right in.  You know firewood needs to "season" some before it is really good for heating. On the other hand, our helpers bundle small stuff "wrist size or less" into 18" x 5 gal bucket portions. Then plastic wrap the whole "packet of wood" for those who have "atmosphere" fireplaces and just want the smell of a real fire, not all the hard work it take to STAY WARM.. (Does this sound like the voice of experience?? RIGHT ON.. the only heat we have in my one room, dirt floor shack is WOOD HEAT!) On the Buffalo River, they recommend "wrist size or less" firewood so the locals make up these little bundles and sell them for $4.95 each with instructions on how to build a fire.
The out of towners from the big cities think that is GREAT.  I haven't figured out how much that is a RICK!!!