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Warm Winter Predicted For United States

Started by submarinesailor, October 23, 2007, 07:18:09 AM

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submarinesailor

Yesterday, the official weather quester's for the US Government released their latest questiment for this winter.  Here is what they had to say.

Bruce


NOAA forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of the Southwest and Southeast in its winter outlook for the United States, announced at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, D.C October 9, 2007.

"La Niña is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through the winter," said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "The big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched South. And while December through February is likely to be another milder-than-average winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of winter weather."  For the 2007-2008 U.S. winter, from December through February, NOAA seasonal forecasters predict:
1.  In the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures are expected to be above average in response to the long-term warming trend. Snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one-to-two weeks in advance.
2.  The drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain drier-than-average due to La Niña, while temperatures are expected to be above average.
3.  In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should be above average.
4.  The south-central Plains should see drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures. Above-average temperatures are also expected in the central Plains. The northern Plains has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperature and precipitation.
5.  In the Northwest, there are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Precipitation should be above average in much of the region due to La Niña.
6.  Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest due to La Niña, and temperatures are likely to be above average.
7.  Northern Alaska is expect to be milder–than-average, while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation. In Hawaii, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be above average.

This winter is predicted to be warmer than the 30-year norm. For the country as a whole, NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December through February projects a 2.8 percent warmer winter than the 30-year normal, but a 1.3 percent cooler winter than last year.

ely

that is sort of strange news to me. where i live you can scoop acorns up in a shovel and the persimmons have the limbs sagging near to the breaking point. in the past this usually means it will be a long tough winter. it will be interesting to see the outcome.

OneWithWood

Looks like a winter of mud.  Sure wish I had gotten in the firewood before it started raining  :(
One With Wood
LT40HDG25, Woodmizer DH4000 Kiln

Radar67

Been kind of wet around here to. So much so that I can't get my crossing dried up enough to get my culverts in.
"A man's time is the most valuable gift he can give another." TOM

If he can cling to his Blackberry, I can cling to my guns... Me

This will kill you, that will kill you, heck...life will kill you, but you got to live it!

"The man who can comprehend the why, can create the how." SFC J

sawguy21

Very wet here too. The forecast I heard was colder and wetter than usual due to El Nina. This weather forecasting is a real cr$p shoot. :D
old age and treachery will always overcome youth and enthusiasm

pigman

Quote3.  In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should be above average.

I sure wish they had made that forcast sooner. ;D  Since yesterday we have received more than four inches of rain. 8) That is three inches more that we have received since May of this year. Beter late than never. ;)
Things turn out best for people who make the best of how things turn out.

Warbird

Quote from: submarinesailor on October 23, 2007, 07:18:09 AM7.  ...while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation.

Uhhhh...  why don't they just say, "We have absolutely no idea what the rest of Alaska will be up to!"  ??  :D :D

BBK

Quote from: Warbird on October 23, 2007, 11:03:19 AM
Quote from: submarinesailor on October 23, 2007, 07:18:09 AM7.  ...while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation.

Uhhhh...  why don't they just say, "We have absolutely no idea what the rest of Alaska will be up to!"  ??  :D :D

I don't know which is worse legalspeak or weatherspeak  ;) :)
I love Farming, Logging, Sawmilling, Fishing, and Hunting.

mike_van

I gotta agree with Ely on the nuts & stuff - Here in New England too, so many hickory nuts, crabapples, walnuts [some of my branches snapped off] Around here, all that usually means long cold winter. I'll let you know in April -  :D     Hey, I wonder if the guy that did the hurricane forecast for the last two seasons is now doing winter too?  Better start cutting wood then.............. a lot of it!
I was the smartest 16 year old I ever knew.

Roxie

This is what the Farmer's Almanac predicts:

"The 2008 Farmers' Almanac long-range forecasts are calling for colder than normal conditions for the eastern half of the country – chiefly those areas east of the Mississippi –with snowier than normal conditions expected.

For the western half of the country - mainly those areas west of the Mississippi – the overall winter will be milder than normal, with near or below normal precipitation. Quite a change from last year, when cold and stormy weather came blasting."

Won't it be fun to see who was right....the NOAA or the Farmer's Almanac?

Say when

Radar67

"A man's time is the most valuable gift he can give another." TOM

If he can cling to his Blackberry, I can cling to my guns... Me

This will kill you, that will kill you, heck...life will kill you, but you got to live it!

"The man who can comprehend the why, can create the how." SFC J

flip

All I can say is good.  I hate the cold. >:(
Timberking B-20, Hydraulics make me board quick

dave7191

 Radar that was just what I was thinking my money is on the almanac  :) :)

RaisedByWolves

Quote from: Radar67 on October 23, 2007, 11:42:48 AM
I'll put my money on the Almanac. ;D


Not me, nosir....IVE GOT Weather Rock!!!


Go ahead and ask me about it, Im thinking about starting a chain of "Weather Rock" stores. I can get them from the local Indian tribe through barter and they will show you the weather accuratly without fail.


.

TexasTimbers

Quote from: RaisedByWolves on October 23, 2007, 11:38:19 PM
Not me, nosir....IVE GOT Weather Rock!!!
Go ahead and ask me about it, Im thinking about starting a chain of "Weather Rock" stores. I can get them from the local Indian tribe through barter and they will show you the weather accuratly without fail.

Okay then I'm asking.
The oil is all in Texas, but the dipsticks are in D.C.

submarinesailor

Now it's time for the commercial weather guesser to get into the picture.  Here what AccuWeather.com has to say about this winter: The AccuWeather.com team is calling for a cooler than normal beginning and end to this winter, wrapped around three months of higher temperatures that could make it a warmer season than last year and one of the 10 warmest winters ever for the southeastern United States.

Now with both NOAA and these guys calling for a warmer winter, maybe the price for natural gas and burner oil will drop some more.  The price for November gas on the futures market has dropped almost $4.00 since the middle of August.  It's down to about $6.75 per million BTUs.

Bruce

DanG

I don't know what the winter weather will be like, but it is a whole bunch cooler today than it was yesterday.  I gotta scratch around and find them 3 brickbats so I can set the Dodge wheel up in front of the shop.  That little fire is gonna feel good! ;D
"I don't feel like an old man.  I feel like a young man who has something wrong with him."  Dick Cavett
"Beat not thy sword into a plowshare, rather beat the sword of thine enemy into a plowshare."

Radar67

DanG, them brickbats may have floated off last week, or got buried up in the mud.  :D
"A man's time is the most valuable gift he can give another." TOM

If he can cling to his Blackberry, I can cling to my guns... Me

This will kill you, that will kill you, heck...life will kill you, but you got to live it!

"The man who can comprehend the why, can create the how." SFC J

DanG

Nahh.  I seen'um yesterday, kinda half buried in the leaves under that huckleberry bush by the shop.  Now the wheel is another story.  I ain't real sure where I tossed it last Spring.  It's gotta be close by somewhere though.  I'm too lazy to have toted it very far. ::)
"I don't feel like an old man.  I feel like a young man who has something wrong with him."  Dick Cavett
"Beat not thy sword into a plowshare, rather beat the sword of thine enemy into a plowshare."

SwampDonkey

This October was the exact same as September. Warm and not very wet at all. Maybe 1/2 to 1-1/2 inches of rain a week. Never had a freeze the ground frost yet, no frozen puddles in the mornings. Not too slick driving around the edge of fields either.
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

thedeeredude

I know exactly what the weather rock is. :D  We have one at work on the desk.  Do a google for weather rock.

SwampDonkey

We have weather rock up north here also. When water freezes in the river (that's the rock), it indicates it's dang cold and a chance of snow in the air for every day it stays froze.  :D :D :D
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Woodbender

Funny - these are the guys who can't get next week's weather right.  That's the problem with computer models - garbage in , garbage out.

I'll take acorns and wildlife observations any day.  And there's BOATloads of acorns here in West Michigan.
Tim Eastman (Woodbender)
Be an example worth following.

getoverit

I'm a lumberjack and I'm ok, I work all night and sleep all day

Ron Wenrich

I always thought that the fruit yield had more to do with how the spring was then how the winter is going to be.  Better weather in the spring means more flower germination....

But, I haven't seen any wooly bears this fall.  Maybe I've overlooked them, but, I don't recall seeing any.  Usually you see a few crossing the road or under the wood pile.  But, this year, nothing.   ???
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

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