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Energy Crisis

Started by DouginUtah, June 24, 2005, 06:10:12 PM

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DouginUtah

Always start a serious subject with a joke.

OIL SHORTAGE!!!



   A lot of folks can't understand how we  came to have an oil shortage here in America.

   Well, there's a very simple answer.
 
   Nobody  bothered to check the oil.
 
   We just  didn't know we were getting low.
   
   The reason for that is purely geographical.
   
   Our OIL is located in Alaska, California, Oklahoma and Texas.



   
   Our DIPSTICKS are located in Washington, DC.




I'm not twisting anyone's arm to get them to believe what I have written in the attached Word document. All I would like you to do is read it. It is not a scholarly or literary masterpiece—just a bunch of facts.

I know that a majority of the FF members are a pretty self-reliant group and have a "can-do" attitude toward whatever comes down the pike. What is going to happen though really is different from anything we have faced before.

I have researched the facts pertaining to Ethanol, Nuclear Power, Solar and Wind Power, Hydrogen, Natural Gas  and Coal and I have drawn conclusions as to the potential of each to meet our energy needs.

There is a list of Links, the first two are bold and are the best to read if you are interested in a more detailed explanation of what is going to happen. One is a link to the Rolling Stone article which was mentioned by someone here earlier. (BTW, it has nothing to do with Rolling Stone Magazine other than it was published in it.

If you disagree with what I say, challenge me!

Crude oil closed today at $59.84, after breaking the $60 per barrel theshold yesterday.

-Doug
-Doug
When you hang around with good people, good things happen. -Darrell Waltrip

There is no need to say 'unleaded regular gas'. It's all unleaded. Just say 'regular gas'. It's not the 70s anymore. (At least that's what my wife tells me.)

---

SwampDonkey

Sure is sobering Doug, but it's inevitable even if we choose to look away from it.  :o
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Furby

Doug,
This is by no way a challenge, but I have to question the fact that aprox. half the world's oil will be left when we reach the peak oil point.
I would tend to think that a lot less oil will be left once we reach peak oil.

Also, again not a challenge, but do you have any suggestions towards solutions?
I would think looking toward space might help us find a reasonable fuel source, but I'm offten wrong. ;D


This really don't have much to do with your paper, but I was wondering if you had any #'s concerning - maybe not global warming, but how the increase in temps are reflected by use of these fuels?
Most people tend to look at global warming and such by way of greenhouse gasses among other things, but don't really look at how much heat in general is being created by the use of all the different fuels as well as body heat created by the increasing amount of mammals.
I'm not sure any of that makes sense to anyone but me.......................... ::)

mometal77

I live near and have worked mainline pipeline.  Right now we have 25 yrs worth of oil in alaska out of the ground to support this country and all of our natural gas comes out of canada through sumas.  Why locke put in 100 megawatt cogens and wont let the passing of hydro electric plants happen.  Its all a farce there is no real problem.
bob
Too many Assholes... not enough bullets..."I might have become a millionaire, but I chose to become a tramp!

Fla._Deadheader


  Borrowed this from another place. I know the guy that lived in Alaska for a long time. He does his homework on this and has lined up support to try to open up the area.

  "Compliments of the US House resources Committee

ANWR: The "Six Month Supply" Charade

In their zeal to thwart energy production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), environmental special interest groups, editorial writers, and other opponents consistently claim that it holds only a "six month supply" of oil.

To arrive at such an estimate, opponents must rely on outdated, low-end estimates of reserves and old recovery technology and artificially low oil prices and assume we will stop producing oil in Texas, Louisiana, Wyoming, the Gulf of Mexico and all other places in the U.S. and decide that we will cut off all imports from foreign countries and depend entirely on 2000 acres of ANWR's 1002 area for all of America's oil needs.

Seem positively absurd? It is. But play along...

According to official USGS data, the low-end estimate of recoverable oil in ANWR is 5.7 billion barrels, the mean estimate is 10.3 billion barrels, and the high-end estimate is 16 billion barrels. So, given this baseline data...

If the "six month supply" charade were true, using the USGS MEAN estimate...

...production levels and delivery to market thru the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) would have to be 56.7 million barrels of oil per day - every day, for six months -to exhaust 10.3 billion barrels. Not only is this production level technologically impossible, the TAPS is only capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil per day.

If the "six month supply" charade were true, using the USGS LOW-end estimate...

...production levels and delivery to market thru the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) would have to be 31.7 million barrels of oil per day – every day, for six months –to exhaust 5.7 billion barrels. Not only is this production level technologically impossible, the TAPS is only capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil per day.

The truth...is that at peak production, ANWR could yield America 1.5 million barrels per day or more for roughly 30 years according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This could nearly replace the same amount of oil we import from Saudi Arabia every year.

10.3 billion barrels of oil, at today's prices, represents $500 billion worth of investment in the U.S. economy over thirty years.


10.3 billion barrels of oil would increase total current reserves of the United States by nearly 50 percent and total domestic production levels by 20 percent, according to EIA.
The resource potential of just 2000 acres in ANWR's 1002 area on the coastal plain of Alaska would be of enormous benefit to our economy and our national security.

http://resourcescommittee.house.gov/


All truth passes through three stages:
   First, it is ridiculed;
   Second, it is violently opposed; and
   Third, it is accepted as self-evident.

-- Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

Ron Wenrich

Peak oil is where the maximum amount of oil can be produced from a well.  It follows a bell shaped curve.  To get more out of a well, you have to inject water, or some chemical to get the oil to the top.  The expense of producing one barrel of crude increases pretty dramatically after peak oil has been reached.  You will never extract all the oil from a well.

I wonder what a report like that would have looked like 100 years ago.  It would have cited how the use of horses was on the way out, how wood was not a viable form of energy, steam power was also inefficient, electricity was too hard to transport, and oil was just a folly.

My point is that times change, and so does technology.  Things that don't look promising have a way of becoming viable due to new discoveries.  That's a factor you can't quantify.

In the 30s-40s, a lot of electricity was produced by low-head hydro plants.  I've seen some of the old remnants on some pretty slow moving streams.  When we went to utility monopolies, they were all torn down and deeded to never operate again.

Fuel efficiency is another factor that is generally overlooked.  With an increase of 7 mpg, we could get rid of importing oil.  Why have our cars and trucks been having lower milage ratings?  The CAFE regs have been pretty well discarded.

Wave power is another source that could be tapped, as is co-generation.  How much unspent energy is put into the air that could be used for other purposes?  

I'm not saying that there isn't problems.  With 2/3 of our energy being expended on transportation, a lot of savings could be mustered in that area.  Maybe you'll start seeing more people working from home.  Maybe you'll see more use of the rails.  

I don't think anyone is suggesting that one type of fuel will be the replacement of oil.  You'll see a combination of solar, wind, hydrogen, etc. to help replace some of the oil demand.  It won't be due to global warming, it will be due to economics and technology.

Laws of physics is one thing, laws of economics is something else.
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

SwampDonkey

There is likely some research going on to use other types of technology to get energy out of something. We probably only will here from those researchers when they perfect a process to get the energy from that source. Not everything is above board. ;) The estimate of the depletion of the Alberta tar sands is over 200 years, I'm not sure if that's for domestic use only or if it's with current global demands. We have way more natural gas here than we could use for a long time in Canada. Here in the maritimes it's not even used domestically in our homes. We use wood, oil, propane and electric. There are lots of places in Canada yet unexplored for oil. But, it is inevitable we will run out, it's not an infinite source. Who knows exactly when we will run out, but we will.

Tar Sands
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

Buzz-sawyer

Furby
You make several good points................I have read studies that clearly "prove", that the methane (FARTS) of mammals produce dangerous levels ........do to mans choice to domesticate and eat so many of them........thereby destroying our planets atmosphere......
:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
Bang on Swampy
I truly believe that there is much more oil yet to be found .....IF we want it , but in 100-200 years the technology of simplicity will be in full effect.............meaning simple mechanical/electrical devices will revolutionize our current brutism ,hacking attempts to build machines.............
I believe that sources we havent even contemplated will bee in common use in the near future.........use of earth magnetic properties warming cooling effect of ocean /atmosphere..........wireless power transmittion???????????.........if we dont kill each other first :D
    HEAR THAT BLADE SING!

DanG

Doug, I haven't had time to read your articles yet, but I will.  Since I haven't read them, I can't say whether I agree or disagree with your viewpoint. ;)  I can only say THANKS for posting them, as you have stimulated a very interesting discussion.  I had some other things to say on the subject, but Wenrich and Sawyer said what I wanted to, and did so much better than I could have.

All I can add is that we don't have to fear an energy crisis.  I worry a lot more about the Chinese government buying up American companies. :o :o  IMHO, we desperately NEED a bonafide energy crisis to put things back on an even keel.  I wish oil would run out tomorrow!  We have plenty of other sources of energy to fall back on, and we are consuming too much energy just because it is cheap, and we can.  We could get along just fine by cutting consumption and utilizing the resources that are going to waste.
"I don't feel like an old man.  I feel like a young man who has something wrong with him."  Dick Cavett
"Beat not thy sword into a plowshare, rather beat the sword of thine enemy into a plowshare."

jrdwyer

Here is an interesting idea for the production of biodiesel on a large scale from algae and some alcohol.

http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html

Innovations or ideas like this one will become more common as oil prices rise. This will offer alternatives to imported oil. Plus, consumers will quickly react to spikes in higher prices by cutting out discretionary spending and buying smaller, more fuel efficient cars. Companies will try to lower costs where possible. Unfortunately, that might mean more jobs going to lower wage countries and the remaining viable companies continually downsizing their workforce. This is not the ideal future, but we humans have endured worse. Who knows, maybe such measures will get us buy until some bright person perfects nuclear fusion and battery storage technology and then our energy problems are solved.

Ron Wenrich

Here's a neat one that I haven't seen before.  Spray on, plastic solar cells.  They work even on cloudy day and make electricity from the infrared sprectrum.  The sun hitting the earth has 10,000 times the energy that we are consuming.  Just a matter of being able to utilize it.

Link
Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

Gary_C

Doug

When I read your "facts" about nuclear power, I was quite surprised. It also is hard to understand why the US Navy and the Chinese Govt. would invest so heavly in a power source with such a limited future. When I checked your source for the basis of your facts, they appear to have originated from the newsletters of special interest groups that have a purpose of stoping any use of nuclear power. For me that raises a red flag and I find it hard to believe what they say. I know our government has been heavily critized for using scientific reports from experts that were not "peer reviewed" and other scientists have been very harsh in their reviews of similiar supposed "facts."

Gary
Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.

crtreedude

I honestly think counting on technology to save our bacon overlooks the second law of thermal dynamics - one part of it says that the more complicated a system is, the quicker it breaks down.

Have you noticed that computer systems just aren't that stable, that is because they have bunches and bunches of components.

Technology is no god - it has serious issues too.

What does the future bring? I really don't know. Here is a curious fact for you - there were civilizations in this part of the world, they eventually died out because starvation.  They were pretty advanced in many ways too - not the same as us.

I see the scientist running around creating things without always thinking about the possible consequences. This is disturbing to me. We have so much power to create bombs and modify the genetic makeup plants and animals, but we aren't very good at predicting the possible outcome of our actions.

It should be an interesting next 30 years.

So, how did I end up here anyway?

Buzz-sawyer

Posted on: Today at 10:27:59 AM

Buzz said,"technology of simplicity will be in full effect.............meaning simple mechanical/electrical devices will revolutionize our current brutism ,hacking attempts to build machines............."

    HEAR THAT BLADE SING!

crtreedude

I hope you are right, they can start at any time as far as I am concerned. I sure am not seeing in the computer business yet.

So, how did I end up here anyway?

Buzz-sawyer

I think current technoogy is kinda self agrandizing in regards to the to the complications of human arrogance.....Such a simple thing as usinfg magnatism to reduce friction has awsome implications.....and truthfully MANY simple ideas are yet to come forth ........
Simple is better......and possible...........
    HEAR THAT BLADE SING!

SwampDonkey

That's my way of thinking. New technology and processes don't have to be complicated. We just haven't taken certain approaches. They'll come along as many things/avenues are explored. ;)

Reminds me of trying to solve the rubics cube. It wasn't a complicated process to solve it, it just had to be thought out. Trying to solve it with random twists and turns reduced your chances of ever coming up with the solution. ;) I never did solve that Dang thing, I just tore it apart and put it back together. Well that's a different approach, and not too complicated. :D
"No amount of belief makes something a fact." James Randi

1 Thessalonians 5:21

2020 Polaris Ranger 570 to forward firewood, Husqvarna 555 XT Pro, Stihl FS560 clearing saw and continuously thinning my ground, on the side. Grow them trees. (((o)))

crtreedude

Because it is my job to solve things, for some reason people used to think that what I wanted to do at a party was solve puzzles - sort of like a Doctor wanting to practice medicine at a party.

I used to tell people I only solve puzzles for money - it isn't my hobbie, but I would be perfectly willing to remove the appendix for free....

So, how did I end up here anyway?

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