Gasoline $12.00 -- $15.00

[Fla._Deadheader]

  For those of you with Fast Internet, there is a Video on Yahoo. 

[Dodgy Loner]

Not gonna happen.

[Toolman]

It could never get that high. It would'nt benefit anyone obviously. Even those that make money off of fuel prices would'nt make out, the whole country would shut down. Think about it. If you had a 60 mile round trip commute to work with a vehicle getting 20 mpg at $10 gal. that would cost you $30 day / $150 week in fuel.
At $15 you are looking at $45 day/ $225 week. Not to mention even higher food costs. It would hardly pay to go to work. It would be a grave situation. You'll have trucking firms shutting down, especially owner/operators. Other industries would shut down. Unemployment would skyrocket. State and local governments would have to cut servies dramatically, since most services rely on fuel. Even as worthless as congress is now, they would have to drill domesticly if they want to keep their jobs. I am just applying some common sense at this scenario. Maybe I'm way off, but our system is'nt set up for those prices. I did'nt mention the skyrocketing crime rate. Those concealed weapons permits will certainly become handy. Beat a guy over his head for his money, or let my kids starve. Pick one. I think things will get real ugly.

Sorry for sounding so negative, but just my $.02

[logwalker]

He didn't put a timeline on the price. It is entirely possible as the third world's come up to speed and , most importantly, our dollar devaluates. The fact is they ain't making no mo'.

[sawdust]

Can you post a video link? It may be in the first post but I can't see it.
thanks.

[StorminN]

Toolman,

In the "Fuel thieves" thread, we've already seen Timburr say that gas is $8.47 a gallon and diesel is $9.44 a gallon in the UK, so why is $12 to $15 here sometime in the future so unbelievable? Prices have been nearly this high in Europe for a long time, and their countries are not shutting down.

I think you hit the nail on the head when you talked about how much it would cost for a 60 mile commute with a 20mpg vehicle... the problems here are the 60 mile commute and the 20mpg vehicle. It's going to be a steep learning curve for Americans until we realize that we can't all commute 60 miles alone in 20mpg vehicles... perhaps it would be better if some of us lived closer to work, or drove more efficient cars... or (god forbid), carpooled, or rode a bus or train...

-N.

[DouginUtah]

Not gonna happen.

Care to elaborate on that?

At first I had to laugh, then I realized that you are serious. A couple of bad hurricanes this summer in the Gulf and we'll see it this year.

On another forum they are discussing (just an an exercise) what will happen when gas hits $100 a gallon. $10 is just around the corner, when considering how often the price has doubled in the last 20 years.

According to Pemex, production at Cantarell - one of the world’s largest oil complexes, which accounts for roughly half of Mexico’s total daily output - has shrunk 24 per cent in the past 12 months alone. What is going to happen when they can't export to the US anymore.

Toolman, you've got it figured out, except for your first two sentences. The end of the age of the personal automobile is approaching, but not real soon.

A pessimist is a well informed optimist!

[Tom]

we realize that we can't all commute 60 miles alone in 20mpg vehicles

That kind of argument sounds good on paper, but since my retirement from the corporate world, where I commuted 80 miles a day because I didn't want to raise my family in a one room apartment.  I have used my resources to develop a portable custom sawing business.   I traveled to work, where the work is.  Sometimes it's 50 miles away.  I used a vehicle that gets 12 mpg because it would carry my mill, tools, office and lumber and based my business with fuel prices as one of the expenditures.  Contrary to popular belief, an increase of 1125%, if my arithmatic is correct, is difficult to pass on to a customer when the business plan won't support it.

When Bill was President and the increase of minimum wage was being argued, he said, "just pass it on, that's what everybody does".  Well everybody doesn't and can't.  Businesses go out of business because of foolish thinking like that.   Even if my sawmill operation is different than the multi gig-a-board foot mills, my niche goes away when I'm forced to compete with them.

The reality of it is that the cost of fuel, taxes, insurance, workman's comp and other miscellaneous charges are killing the small business owner.

[Ron Wenrich]

That would be suggesting oil at $375-500/barrel.  I don't think the equilibrium price would support that number anytime soon.  Demand is dropping at $125/bbl, where do you think it would be at $200?

They had an article on fuel prices in the paper this past weekend.  The highest priced fuel is in Turkey at $11/gal.  Like the rest of the world, Turkey has highly taxed gas.  The US has some of the lowest taxed in the world.

As fuel prices rise, alternatives get to be more cost effective.  You will eventually get to the point where fossil fuels will lose market share.  Those highly paid CEOs won't have any of that.

[Furby]

It's been reported that with oil at $150 per barrel, gas prices would be $4.50 per gallon.
With oil at $200 per barrel, gas would be $6.00 per gallon.

[StorminN]

I used a vehicle that gets 12 mpg because it would carry my mill, tools, office and lumber and based my business with fuel prices as one of the expenditures.  Contrary to popular belief, an increase of 1125%, if my arithmatic is correct, is difficult to pass on to a customer when the business plan won't support it.

Tom, after traveling to Europe and Japan, I would argue that you could have a truck that served the same function, but got twice or better that mileage. The technology is out there... check out any mid-sized Isuzu truck, or a Freightliner / Mercedes diesel. Heck, my 25 year old full-sized GMC van gets 20-21mpg and it weighs almost 7,000lbs, and it would tow a mill.

My point is, people have been making it work in other countries with high-priced petro for years, but we have chosen to aim our sights pretty low here in the US, as far as mpg standards go... could the US auto industry lobby have something to do with this? If not, why can't we buy all these nifty efficient diesels that we see for sale everywhere else in the world?

The reality of it is that the cost of fuel, taxes, insurance, workman's comp and other miscellaneous charges are killing the small business owner.

I totally agree... this is what happens when you let corporations and lobbyists control Washington. For example, mandatory insurance... before it was mandatory, we all were told that if it was made mandatory, all our rates would go down... because all the uninsured people would now be covered. Well,  they made it mandatory, and rates never went down... now what we hear is that because all the "high risk" people have to be insured, all our rates go up... (not to mention all the 'really bad' people that still don't have insurance.)

I've often joked that this is the equivalent of the snowboard industry (my industry) hiring some lobbyists and making it mandatory for every US citizen to buy two snowboards a year... ridiculous.

-N.

[Toolman]

There you guys go again comparing us with Europe's fuel prices. European countries are socialist governments. Those prices include all of those taxes to support their social programs. These are nanny states that provide health care, mass public transportation systems, etc. I live 28 miles from work because that is where my company relocated. I've built and lived in my rural home for 25 yrs.  I don't pickup and follow companies around when they decide to move. I want to raise my kids far away from inter-city for obvious reasons. Our society was built for commuters. That's just reality. Now all of sudden people preach to sell 20-25 mpg vehicles right now and buy more efficient. Try selling those now. I need my diesel pickup for hauling my logs, firewood and portable sawmill to job sites. Fuel prices are killing me and business is dropping off . People are reluctant to spend money now. Can't blame them. Last year heating oil was $1.85 gal.(jan 07) now it's over $4.00 gal. What happened in past 365 days that caused this "so called" shortage. Like I said in my prior post, $10.00 gas will kill this country. If $4.00 gas is slowing economy down now, think about more than double that. Salaries are'nt keeping pace with this kind of increase in fuel. Somethings gotta give.

[StorminN]

Toolman, I don't quite follow your post.

My point was that people in other places in the world have to move freight, logs, firewood, whatever - just like we do... but they do it using less resources (gas, diesel, etc.) They do it using less resources because their fuel prices have been traditionally high, hence they developed more efficient vehicles and have been driving them for years...

Meanwhile... here in the US, our domestic auto lobby has successfully blocked large-scale importation of  the more efficient foreign-made vehicles, to ensure that the American public buys (less efficient) American vehicles.

This, coupled with lame mpg standards dictated by our government have let US automakers basically do what they want. (Bush's new proposed standard is 10% stricter than Carter's was 30 years ago, and Bush's new proposal is based on the assumption that gas will be $2.34 a gallon in 2013... does that sound right?) Read it here: NHTSA CAFE Standard

Not that any of this matters now, with $4.00 gas and $5.00 diesel, and prices still going up... consumers are setting the mpg standard... I don't know how many people I've talked to that say that don't want to drive anything that gets under 30mpg, and they're disappointed a car like the Prius still only gets 45mpg.

What I would like to see is an even playing field... get the government out of it... let the US automakers make whatever they want, BUT let the foreign automakers import what they want, too... (or even better, build them here) and let the consumers decide what they want to buy.

I completely agree that $10 gas will fundamentally change the way this country functions, but I'm not convinced it will be all bad... I can't help but think we've been driving fat, dumb and happy on cheap fuel for waaay too long.

Oh yeah... and I'm not convinced that there is a true petroleum shortage... not when Exxon, BP, etc. are still making $40 billion in profit per quarter.

P.S. I agree that Europe has different setup than us. (and it seems to be working for them... but that's a subject for a different post)

-N.

[Toolman]

Stormin,
I agree mostly with your post. My point is this. This fuel increase was a sudden blow to the Americans. People have been forced to purchase inefficient vehicles. Our Government is to blame for that. Ford has been selling a 4.2 L diesel in S. Africa for years. It gets over 50 mpg. I have for years did what I possibly could to make my vehicle more fuel efficient. I can only do so much without tampering with emissions controls. My point is now all of a sudden we are to sell our inefficient vehicles and suddenly come up with money for newer more fuel efficient vehicles that really are'nt that fuel efficient. We as a society are not capable of purchasing the same vehicles that are available in Europe. WHY??  Government regulations. Make a diesel pickup that is as efficient as those in Europe here in U.S. , I'd buy it tommorow. Until then, we need time to adjust.

[farmerdoug]

Why is the high fuel prices a sudden blow?

They warned us in the eigthies that fuel would eventually rise to high levels.  We choose to ignore the warnings and are paying for it now.

[DouginUtah]

I won't admit to regularly listening to the incredulous Sean Hannity but I did hear him say today that in 6 years gas will be $15 a gallon.   

While I think that gas could get over $10 a gallon given unfortunate circumstances I don't actual believe that it will--at least not for several years. (Crude hit $138.54 today though, with $150 projected by July 4.)

Pre-Katrina (August, 2005) gas was $2.35. I have a picture of gas prices after Katrina which shows prices of $5.87, $5.97 and $6.07.
That's a jump of 250%. Projecting that to our current $4.00 price and it is close to $10.

But I think we will be unlikely to see prices over $10 because....


No gas pump that I have ever seen will register a price of more than $9.999 per gallon. 

I have not been successful in finding out how much the latest generation of pumps cost but I would guess over three grand. I can't see many stations replacing them. Maybe they would find a work-around. 

[Cedarman]

When it hits $10.00, they will price it at 1/2 gallon,
When it hits $10.00 per 1/2 gallon, then they will price it by the quart.
When it hits $10.00 per quart, then they will price it by the pint.
When it hits $10.00 per pint, then they will price it by the cup.
When it hits $10.00 per cup, oh, we would all be riding horses by then.

[ellmoe]

When it hits $10.00 per cup, oh, we would all be riding horses by then.

Cedarman, have you se the price of hay?

Mark

[Cedarman]

Pop!  That was the sound of ellmoe bursting my balloon.

[Radar67]

You will always have to worlds oldest, most trusted form of transportation available to you. And the kicker is, it doesn't need even a drop of oil or gas to operate, at least not the kind that comes from crude. 

The transportation is commonly known as LPCs or Pete and Jake.....for those of you who are lost, LPC is leather personnel carriers. In other words, we can always walk. 

[Toolman]

Drill more domestic oil. Anyone hear about this Bakken oil field out in Montana? I hear 500 billion barrels of light sweet crude under the shale. Read that technology is now available to extract at a cost of $16 barrel. Congress again thumbed it down to drill. The insanity is mind boggling to me. I feel their is an element in Congress that wants this Country to fall. I can't come up with any other explanation. I guess if somebody else paid for my fuel to go to and from work, what would I care. These irresponsible clowns need vote out. It's bordering on criminal.

[farmerdoug]

In the early eighties when gas went above a dollar a gallon the pumps could not handle so they switched to liters.  that was really confusing to people as Metric was just coming into use in the USA.

[Tom]

Down here, you can get fined $500 for litering, Farmerdoug. 

[logwalker]

Tom, driving around in some of these dinosaurs is a form of littering. 

[Meadows Miller]

gday

I did the conversion today and Its costing me  $6.80 a gal at the moment this time last year we paid $4.50 gal  . My one ton 88 mod Falcon ute 4.1 strait 6 cyl gets 60 miles on 2.6 us gal . and my 78 mod 9 ton Inter ACCO tray truck  does a 9 ton del to Melbourne and back loaded one way and uses $95.00 worth of LPG Gas on a 185 mile round trip . it has a 345 V8 pet on gas and a 10 speed eaton box I average 52 mph 85 ks per hour .ticks ppl of tho. speed limits are 62 to 68.3 mph 100 to 110 kph
on the open road over here . my 80 hp perkins pwrd circular sawmill uses 15 to 16 gal per 8 hours of actual sawing time . I think the trick is to find gear thats tight on fuel . Im going to go on to a 6 71 GM WOOD GAS powerd genset for the sawmill soon.
 
thanks Chris McMahon.