The REST of the Story

[Fla._Deadheader]

 [http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/WhyExxonWontProduceMore.aspx?page=1/]

 Well, THAT didn't work 



 Click Here

   

[Fla._Deadheader]

 Well, That only took a ½ hour 

[Dan_Shade]

We're proud of ya, Harold 

[zopi]

Well, duh...if ya gottem by the short and curlies, you don't give stuff away...there is a good reason i own oil
stocks...

didja know that an Arleigh Burke class destroyer burns about $30,000 dollars worth of DFM every day of operation?

[olyman]

oil co's---noooooo time for them--seems they and the politicians could give two hoots about you and me--pay for the fuel--do they care??

[Dan_Shade]

well, it's not only the oil companys that do that sort of thing.

gas is expensive, but the last time I was on the DC beltway, it was still heavy traffic without people carpooling...

[PineNut]

oil co's---noooooo time for them--seems they and the politicians could give two hoots about you and me--pay for the fuel--do they care??

You better believe they care. They smile all the way to the bank.

[Fla._Deadheader]

 The only reason I endured the hardships of getting that link to work, is, I just don't get, how the govt. can let the economy be affected so much, that poor folks have to suffer, so the big companies can reap such obscene profits

  I know, life ain't fair, but, Geeze, come on. 

[zopi]

I can. but the answer involves roundly abusing the upper echelons of our government, thus starting a
political discussion that would likely get me banninated...<GRIN>

the much touted law against price gouging at the pump seems pretty ineffective, eh?

[beenthere]

If "we" didn't keep on buying it, the price would drop..

Who volunteers to go first..??   

Big Gov't can't take care of all our needs...IMO.

[zopi]

if I could slide out the door and catch a train to work, you can bet I would...

[Fla._Deadheader]

 I was thinking, if they stopped the price fixing, gas wars would bring things within reason. It USED to work 

  Don't even THINK I'm wanting the govt to try to FIX the problem, but, there are people hubbin it to just survive right now

[Don P]

I read that as a 4% tightening of the supply causing a 300% price increase at retail . it is supply and demand. I think about 20% of corn diverted to ethanol and what, doubled the bushel price  , I'm not sure what that has done to the retail price.

It seems like alternatives could win back the 4% and at least remove that demand pressure. Although I guess if the price isn't high the alternative doesn't seem as appealing.

The automobile and the paving of roads in rural areas means that stores are farther away than they used to be. I drive past a number of old ones on the way to town. I wonder if obscene fuel prices will open those back up?

[Ron Wenrich]

Yes, it is supply and demand at work.  The problem is that the supply is in too few hands.  Let's hear it again for allowing all those mergers that supposedly saves consumers lots of money.

There are a lot of lobbyists and politicians that are in bed together.  It all revolves around money and how Exxon can keep the lion's share.  Read that as tax breaks.  Get rid of the current tax system, and you get rid of the lobbyist. 

Its not so much that corn is being used for ethanol, but that it has diverted acreage from other grains to corn, which raises grocery prices.  Is there a tax incentive to make ethanol?  See comment above.

[Fla._Deadheader]

 I've also got access to an article, where, 300 million gallons of Biodiesel, is sent to Europe, out of 450 million gallons produced in the states, last year. Better market over there, as, diesel is around $7.50-$8.00 gallon, US.  The USA better wake up.

[Handy Andy]

  Exxon needs the money to pay for its losses in Venezuela.  Hugo nationalized their operation there. 

[HOOF-ER]

I was just reading this link. Two things I have been pondering. How much taxes are on a gallon of gas? If the state/government is at ,say, just 6% tax . Back when gas was $1/ gallon . The revenue has just tripled at $3/gal.  (6 cent to 18cents). What incentive does government have to reduce gas prices?
Oil  and/or grain are commodities and are traded in contracts. Speculators are not required to own the product to trade it. For a very small percentage of the dollars involved you or I could control a contract of say corn. Which I believe is traded in 5,000 bu contracts. What if you had to take delivery of a commodity to speculate on it? Bad for the seller ,good for the buyer/end user /consumer. Possibly not. The investors would not/could not put money in these markets. I cannot believe that our market place is totally a supply demand thing. I believe it is fund managers moving massive amounts of investment capital into the commodities markets. Just my thoughts sorry to ramble.Some of this bugs me

[Ron Wenrich]

Speculators offer liquidity in the market place.  There is a buyer and a seller.  Its pretty much a zero sum game.  $3 trillion a day are traded on the currency speculation markets.  Of course, everyone has money, but they don't have the amounts that are being traded.  Its all leveraged.

For commodities, the underlying contract has a due date.  These things don't run on forever, like a stock.  They also have the market value underlying that commodity.  Most commodities will be priced at market value plus a percentage to cover interest.  The farther the market is to expiration, the more expensive it becomes.  Those prices erode over time.

In a fast moving market where demand outstrips supply, the closer markets will be higher than those farther out.  It has nothing to do with the speculators, but the underlying market value.  Steel does not have a commodity listing, yet the prices are high.

Yes, there are massive amounts of money going into the commodity markets.  That's due to the poor returns in the stock market.  Its also due to poor interest rates.  In order for investors to maintain their return, they have to go to every market they can. 

Commodity markets are good ways for companies to hedge on prices or guarantee a price at harvest.  Its how trucking companies can keep some stability in their fuel prices and how the local oil man can guarantee a certain price to their home heating customers.  You can do the same thing by playing the options market where you don't even trade in the commodity contract. 

As for the road taxes, they are levied at a certain price per gallon.  The more people drive, the more they collect in taxes.  Buy a  fuel efficient car and you'll pay less in taxes. 

The cause for high fuel prices is caused by a lot of things.  But, excessive demand is at work here.  The dollar lost 10% this year so far.  Does that impact the price of gas?

[Warren]

Folks,

I spent the past hour trying to constructively express my frustration with this matter, with no success.  Let's just say I will be changing my long time voting preferences in November...

I am not certain what I am changing to. But the folks that are in power now need to understand that the current situation is unacceptable...

Warren

[ely]

i aggree with warren,

and another thing thats not entirely different,
here we have a company called cheasapeake energy, something something whatever. that corporation is now buying up ranches all over the place and getting into the cattle business. i know of about 5 ranches that they have purchased with the smallest about 4500 acres.
imo, you now have oil and gas tax break money being used to venture into the cattle industry. what happens to the small ranchers when they flood the market with beef.
i know in the past here, when the drought comes on and cattle times get tough alot of the small timers had to get out. if everyone sells out all the brood stock it will cause a shortage of young cattle, then they lift the import restrictions on beef cattle and we all get to deal with a whole new set of problems,like disease and parisites that are new to this area.

bottom line imo is oil and gas money should be used in the expansion of that industry not allowed to be used to disrupt the livelyhoods of others.
the working class pays the brunt of the taxes in this country, while big wheels just find more ways to beat the goverment out of more taxes still yet, and thats on top of what our politicians are already giving those yahoos in the form of tax breaks. but heck i can't talk all day about this, i have to run out and pump 225 dollars into my boat so i can fish this saturday.

[crtreedude]

 I've also got access to an article, where, 300 million gallons of Biodiesel, is sent to Europe, out of 450 million gallons produced in the states, last year. Better market over there, as, diesel is around $7.50-$8.00 gallon, US.  The USA better wake up.

What will happen is that price will continue to go up until supply drops as well as other sources of energy become competitively priced.

Did anyone see the memo from the CEO of shell predicting peak oil in 7 years? I personally would like to see a soft landing - not a run up into a brick wall.

[submarinesailor]

I think the 7 year peak oil theory just took a hit.  Check out this article:  http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/17/america/LA-FIN-Brazil-Good-Times.php.  Too bad it wasn't inside a US controlled territory.

Bruce

[SAW MILLER]

I think we should all quite mowing grass. 8)You stop and think about how many millions of gallons of gas and diesel are wasted on peoples vanity yards!!!!

  I think there otta be a limit on how much dang grass is mowed in this country.Turn loose some stupid cows on some of it,besides I HATE MOWIN STUPID GRASS.
  Imagine how many millions of dollars are spent on 0-radius stupid mowers and the fuel to run them.Now pensil in how many man hours are wasted not to mention fertilizer and stupid dandelion killer.
   It ain't no wonder all these little countrys around the world hate us as wasteful as we are.

I bet it would even lower the gas price 10 or 15 cents.

[Dale Hatfield]

Im with you sawmiller  never found a yard i like to mow. Id rather have to open a gate  at the end of the drive on every trip in or out as  have to mow.Not mowing grass running a weed eater was in my terms prior to getting hitched

[Warren]

...  I think there otta be a limit on how much dang grass is mowed in this country.Turn loose some stupid cows on some of it,besides I HATE MOWIN STUPID GRASS.  ....

20 years ago when I was in Kenya, I was surprised to see that all "public areas" along the roadways were used for "public" grazing.  Goats and sheep tied out along the road everywhere during the day.  No need to pay highway depts or highway contractors to to mow rights of way or road edges.  Livestock did the job.  Everyone was happy with the arangement...

[PineNut]

I left a lot of trees around my house. As a result, I mow the yard once a year whether it needs it or not. It gets mowed in the early fall so I can blow the leaves away from the house. I don’t like raking leaves either.

In Mississippi, the highway dept plants flowers on the right of way. That gives them an excuse to skip one mowing and planting flowers is cheaper than mowing one time.

[Radar67]

They still mow in my county....wish they would plant flowers over here, as long as it is not crown vetch.

Where you been keeping yourself Pinenut?

[KGNC]

I drive a lot of miles on the interstates. My idea would be to grow corn for fuel in the interstate medians. There are a lot of acres between the east and west bound lanes. That would save on grass mowing too.  And you could make a lot of places for the HP to hide.

[PineNut]

Where you been keeping yourself Pinenut?

With the good weather, there have been too many projects. I usually scan the forum every day or so but have not been posting very much.

[Ron Wenrich]

If I recall, I used to see them baling hay on the interstates either in the Midwest or the Rockies back in the '70s. 

[Furby]

Still do it in the plains states Ron.

[Handy Andy]

  If I could get the old lady to cut down on her mowing, I could bale more hay. 

[dnalley]

If you really don't want to mow grass just plant a few water oaks around the yard.  Don't know if it's the shade or something in the chemical make-up of the trees, but under mine even weeds hardly grow.  But man the leaves and acorns in the fall!

[Tom]

I've been tentatively studying the speculative market on Gold, silver, lead, uranium and copper.  Can somebody please tell me how much is left?

[ellmoe]

   So Tom, now I understand all those fresh dug holes in your backyard. I thought you were just burying skunks!


Mark

[Tom]

I've been doing some serious cojitating, Ellmoe.  These "running out of oil" threads have really been enlightening.  How they can tell how much is left is beyond me, but they use that information to control the price of what they offer us mortals to burn as fuel.   It's also used to determine the date at which the world is going to end and to describe the maladies that will befall the human race as it does.   These guys are really smart and determined to the point that they don't even have to listen to any other scenarios.  So, I figure that if I can get them to look at these minerals, and maybe even tell me where they are, I'll go dig some up and be a millionaire during the last few moments of world.

If you hear anything, let me know. As close as we are to one another, we could pool our findings and  buy a fishing boat.

[DouginUtah]

These guys are really smart and determined to the point that they don't even have to listen to any other scenarios. 

Sarcasm noted. 

Tom, I would be more than happy to listen to your scenario. 

[Tom]

I would be more than happy to listen to your scenario.

Probably not.

I'm not a believer in intimidation or governing with fear.  Failure isn't a word that I use until it's to describe a historical event. Most of these arguments are based on "oh woe is me".  They instill feelings of loss and anger with little or no reason to follow a path to success. 

I find it humorous that so many can put a date on the running out of oil, while there are so few who get excited about new fuels and transportation devices without mentioning the dark cloud overhead. 

Coaches giving a half-time talk, don't energize a defeated team by telling them that all is lost because they aren't any better than they were last week when they were beaten.  All people need hope and bright futures.  Saying we are out of oil will not be proven until a hole has been punched in every square foot of the USA and its territories.

This negative marketing scenario, used by so many of late, begets complacency and failure.  The bulk of the people on that side are just joiners, not doers.  If they can't generate a crisis of some sort, they find someone who has a good one going and join their bandwagon.  It reminds me of the mourners of old who tore their clothing, rolled in the dirt, wailed and threw ashes all over themselves.  They didn't' even know the guy who had died.  They could present a good show though.  You hired these guys the same as  people like Gore have "hired" their followings.  Payment is in acknowledgement.

What is my scenario?  It's not the doom and gloom of a failed race.   I have no defined and definite answers but to recognize that our society has lost its will to perform.  Fewer and fewer people are willing or able to explore new avenues.  I blame it directly on  the faction of the society that has been so negative and dark.  I blame it directly on those who want a bigger and bigger government.  I blame it on socialist who have gotten into our government a produced a society that is made up mostly of people with their hands out. I blame it on an educational system that has failed to incite interest. 

If peoples minds were in the right place, the value of the Dollar nor the price of fuel would have the impact that it has today.  This country needs to redefine success, acknowledge those who "do", cut back on spending, minimize government's size, quit taxing as if it were the citizens job to provide for the government what the government wants, shut down faulty litigation, return to a court system of fairness, honesty and truth and........ start drilling.

[pineywoods]

Tom's got it right......We'll NEVER run out of oil, no doubt the day may come when what's left will be too expensive to recover.....Go back to the 1800's, when everybody was crying What will we do when the world runs out of whale oil for our lamps......All I want is for the government to get off my back and leave me alone, the 3 of us, me, myself and I, will do just fine thank you.  So would most of the guys and gals on here...

[Paul_H]

I sure don't mind Doug's views and articles at all.I take what feels right and discard or file away what doesn't for later chewing(cud)All through history,people that tried to warn others were beaten,burned and even sawed in two,and often by the time they got to clothes ripping and ash throwing,it was too late.
I remember about 12 years ago,Carla took a couple of the kids to Soccer and just before she left,put a meatloaf in the oven.I wasn't feeling well so I lay down and had a nap.My daughter Jodi was around 7 then and she was playing in her room next to ours.
The smoke alarm woke me up but it had been going off for no good reason lately so I ignored it and tried to drift.Jodi came out of her room and I heard her yell "Fire".
I called to her to tell her it was alright but she ran out the back door and I could here her yelling right over to the neighbour's house.
I was pithed off pretty good by this time because I knew it was a false alarm and besides,I didn't want to wake from my slumber.I did get up and discovered the kitchen cupboards were on fire and it was heading for the ceiling.
Managed to put it out.

Maybe it's just the part of the world I live in but my parents and grandparents and other oldtimers lived through a time of no freezers or electricity and a time when horses and manpower were far more common than petroleum driven machinery so I just don't see the logic in thinking oil is our God given right and I honestly don't think that man is smart enough to solve all his own problems.My trust and fear is in God,not man.
Europe faced mass starvation during WWII because of petroleum shortages but countries like Sweden had the foresight to have a plan in place to keep the transportation and farming networks running smoothly.Problems can come when you rely solely on one system for energy.
I was born in 1962 and the petroleum industry was barely a 100 years old then.Do I think it's going to be around forever?Nope!

Bring it on Doug

[DouginUtah]

Thanks, Tom.

Reading between the lines of your previous posts that is pretty much what I anticipated.

As a peak oil doomer I find it interesting that you are also a doomer of sorts--as to what is happening in this country and to your view of society. I could agree with most of what you are saying, but I am also a pragmatist.

I hope I have never said we are running out of oil. All I have ever meant to say is oil is a finite resource and when demand exceeds supply there will be serious consequences. Can you argue that that is not true?

The one thing I can't get past though is that you and many others seem to have no consideration for future generations. No one seems to be able to explain that one to me.  I wish someone would.

Mideast oil was discovered 100 years ago today.

(Paul posted while I was composing. Thanks Paul.)

[Warren]

First off "Tom for President" !

Second, Pineywoods is on the right track. We gotta look at what the real need is.  I worked for a small midwestern soap company for a number of years (P&G)  They originallly started out making candles. But they were not really in the candle business.  They were in the business of supplying a reliable cost effective means of providing light in peoples homes and businesses.  So when gas lights came along in the mid 1800's,  the gas light people put the candle people out of business. Fortunately, P&G had already diversified into soap making.  Later Mr. Edison put the gas light people out of business with the light bulb.

To bring it back around, for centuries, horses were the primary form of transportation for people and for raw materials and finished goods.  With the invention of the hydro carbon based internal combustion engine and automobile, Ford, GM,Toyota, et al, put the horse people out of business.  Not because they are in the automobile business.  But because automobiles provide a better, more cost effective way to transport people and goods.  As soon as someone comes up with a better way to transport people and goods, internal combustion based automobiles will slide into the "good ole days" just like horses have...

The whole reason the forward seeing Arab oil moguls are building up their infrastructure and diversifying is they also know that their days of generating huge profits based on an oil economy will quickly become a fond memory as soon as someone comes up with the next "great thing" in transportation. 

I have no idea what the next "great thing" in transprtation is.  But I would better dinner that "someone" is out there working on it even as we discuss this thread...

Food for thought.  Are we really in the "sawmill" business ?  Or, are we in the business of providing people with convenient, cost effective building materials ?  Or

Warren

[Tom]

Since we are dealing with opinions here, I've chosen to sit on my two page reply. 

[Paul_H]

That's what I usually do too

[GF]

Why would the govt get involved with the price of oil?  I look at it this way, the economy is not looking to good, oil is the highest its been and people simply are not spending money, but people are spending large amounts of money on newer fuel efficeint vehicles (ones that can afford them) to save money at the pump.  New vehicle sales results in large tax revenue for the govt, so why would the govt want to get involved?  They are still making tax revenue only its been redirected from auto sales. 

Why is diesel so high?  What I noticed is how is the average farmer going to afford off road diesel to farm?  My speculation is that the oil companies are driving the price of diesel up to put the farmers out of business, with farmers out of business crops will no longer be grown for ethanol production.  In reality the oil manufactures are driving their ethanol producers out of business by making it to expensive to farm to produce alternative fuels.

If we took the money that our govt wastes yearly and invested this money in alternative energy resources, we would probably have wind farms powering have the United States now, and numerous other energy resource alternatives.

This is my 2 cents worth for the day.

[SwampDonkey]

I've been tentatively studying the speculative market on Gold, silver, lead, uranium and copper.  Can somebody please tell me how much is left?

Seems the government is determined to start Uranium exploration here in NB. Most citizens don't want it, but apparently the government doesn't like to listen to it's citizens. And being voted into office has come to mean they can do as they please.

Of interest, they just discovered ,"yeah right", a document in government on the study of rayon gas in many homes in Harvey Station done back in 1980 and the findings were never released.  Seems to me radon gas is carcinogenic.

[Tom]

There was a big media blitz on Radon gas here in the 1980's.   The fear of god was put into mobile home owners and owners of off-grade homes when it was declared that the still air beneath the home captured the radon gas.  New inspection businesses shot up everywhere.  Inspection kits were made available, for a fee, by the government.   People were even considering ceasing to use basements.   While I'm sure there is truth to some of the stories, most of it was hype.  It did fill the need of many to be alarmed and provided them with new isssues for their activism.

This is not said to discourage inspection of your home, it's probably a good idea. Just don't think the world is ending or the sky is falling. 

[Jeff]

Radon gas certainly isn't hype here in Michigan. Its reality.  In Florida you probably dont have near the issue with it as in states like Michigan where we have basements and crawls in a majority of homes.

[Fla._Deadheader]

 Not to start a Pi$$ing contest, but, where I grew up, (NJ), ALL the old houses had basements, (cellars), and the inhabitants died off, of OLD AGE. 

  Maybe the soil composition has something to do with this   NJ is mostly sand, with a clay subsoil, maybe, where I grew up.

[Jeff]

Its got everything to do with the local geology

[Tom]

There is still a concern here, and probably a valid one.  The "Hype" of the 80's where the newspapers were full of articles of impending doom and "contractors" knocked on your door or called your phone every day, has gone away.

You seldom hear of Radon Testing here anymore unless it is in the context of a house sale. That might not be a good thing and, without any better knowledge, I'll reserve judgement.

Most of the documents I've found on Radon are Federal and not region specific.

[Jeff]

We still have regular PSA commercials here on Radon Gas. I dont know if its because we have more uranium mixed deep in our geology here or what.  I do know that its a leading cause of Lung Cancer in parts of the state.  We had our home tested when we moved in. Acutally my Dad had it don for us. He had his tested and had high concentrations. He wanted to make sure that we didn't. We tested fine by the same testing company.

[SwampDonkey]

Lord love a duck, here I go and accuse rayon as a deadly gas. 

It's Radon!! 

Sheesh

[SwampDonkey]

Apparently, it was leaked that the same bureaucrat that dismissed pollutants in the Belledune area, buried the radon report. The area of Belledune has been retested in the last 2 years and has found high lead content. The particular levels are being disputed between independent research and that of government.

A lot of people who should have their water tested have not done so because it costs money and it's a non government testing agency doing the testing. I think there is as much mistrust about legitimacy than cost. We have tested our water here several times over the years through government testing. I tested it about 4 years ago through a private lab and now they call every year to test the water. The fear is arsenic in the well water now. But, I never heard of any local cases. Apparently, arsenic can seep into old wells over time.

My grandparents ate off lead painted dishes and both lived to be 87. One color, orange, in that dish set was radioactive.  Doesn't mean there wasn't a risk there. No body knew back in the 30's when those dishes were made. If they did , nothing was said until the 1980's. 

[Gary_C]

Lord love a duck, here I go and accuse rayon as a deadly gas. 

 

I saw that and was going to ask if rayon gas came from burning those old leisure suits, but I recall they were made of polyester and not rayon.   

[Paul_H]

  What a hoot

[ibseeker]

f you're interested in fear mongering and I believe it's a valid concern, read Michael Crichton's "State of Fear".
He provides real data that you can investigate and confirm for yourself the validity of his statements. The main point that I recall from the book is the media needed a new twist on an old theme...Fear. Once the cold war ended, they jumped right in with the environmental issues and pushed all the right buttons to generate more newspapers sales.

It's an interesting book and very enlightening.

[PineNut]

There is a very good reason we don’t hear much about radon gas now. The radon gas people are now shouting global warming. This too will pass after the truth comes out and we will then be on another trip.

[Warbird]

Lord love a duck, here I go and accuse rayon as a deadly gas. 

 

I saw that and was going to ask if rayon gas came from burning those old leisure suits, but I recall they were made of polyester and not rayon.   

For a second, I thought you were talking about deadly 'crayon' gas.  I was going to call the family and have them get rid of the nieces and nephews crayons! 

[SwampDonkey]

It could be, if it left marks on mom's white walls. 

[submarinesailor]

SD,

Have been talking to grandson #1.  Grandma is a little *pithed right now.  The walls are off-white........and multi-colored.

Bruce